Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit · UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

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UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Fight Form

Saturday, November 14, 2026 · Madison Square Garden

By @SeanZerillo

Odds updated 2026-11-14 20:24 UTC

FIGHT 13MAIN EVENT★ TITLEHeavyweight · 5 RDS

Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit

11-2-0 (1 NC)

UFC record

4-0-0

36.6

Age▶▶

29.0

6'4"

Height◀

6'1"

81"

Reach◀◀

73"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Projection

Moneyline · model vs market

Fighter	Model	Listed	Market	Edge
Ciryl Gane	-188 65.3%	-188 65.3%	-210 67.7%	-0.0%
Josh Hokit	+188 34.7%	+170 37.0%	+175 36.4%	-2.3%

Line move Hokit opener +213 → +180 (+3.5%)line data as of 11/14 20:10 UTC

Fight length · GTD and ITD

Outcome	Projection	Listed	Edge
Goes the distance	+232 30.1%	+212 32.1%	-1.9%
Inside the distance	-232 69.9%	-292 74.5%	-4.6%

Method of victory · projection vs listed

Fighter		DEC	KO	SUB	ITD
Ciryl Gane	Proj	+390 20.4%	+153 39.6%	+1800 5.3%	+123 44.8%
	Listed	+39020.4%	+11546.5%	+10009.1%	-12555.6% KO+Sub
	Edge	+0.0%	-6.9%	-3.8%	-10.8%
Josh Hokit	Proj	+930 9.7%	+471 17.5%	+1232 7.5%	+299 25.0%
	Listed	+70012.5%	+46017.9%	+82410.8%	+24928.7% KO+Sub
	Edge	-2.8%	-0.3%	-3.3%	-3.6%

What these numbers mean

Model: Our projection: the fair price and win chance for each side.
Listed: The price on our sheet when the projection was published.
Market: The current consensus price. The % is the straight conversion of that price, so it still includes the book's margin.
Edge: Model % minus the listed % (moneyline, goes the distance) or minus the market % (inside the distance, method). Positive means the model likes that side more than the price does. Coloured only at 2.0 points or more either way.
Price unavailable: The odds feed has a price, but it fails our sanity rule (rule v3: a one-sided distance market; this bout's method prices adding up to over 140% or, when complete, under 100%; a draw shorter than +1000; or two of them opening at exactly +100), so we do not show it. Not offered = no price in the feed.
Line move: How far the win chance has moved from the opener to the current line, with the opener of the side it moved toward. The current line uses US-regulated books only.
Spot to watch: Shows only when a tested angle applies to this fight: the striking-edge rule (career strike differential gap 1.9+ per minute, both fighters with 4+ UFC fights), the round-3 rule (R3 differential gap about 2.9+ per minute), or the comeback spot (one fighter much better in round 3 than round 1 relative to the other). Each line gives the test it comes from. None has been tested on live prices.
Price unverified: The listed price was not seen at a US-regulated book in the 24 hours before our projection was published, so we do not colour its edge until the sheet is checked.

Stats

Gane

Hokit

Striking and cardio

Striking

HeadBodyLegswhere they land

Gane

45%27%29%

Hokit

90%8%2%

+3.09

Strike diff /min

+4.16

+3.35

Opp-adjusted diff

+4.44

+1.46

Head diff /min

+4.06

+0.91

Body diff /min

+0.20

+0.72

Leg diff /min

-0.10

76%

Head defence

52% 4 fights

Round by round (judging model) · 5 rounds

Rounds wonjudging model	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5
Gane
Hokit				n/a	n/a

Tap a cell for the fights.
% = share of rounds won (scored by our judging model).
/min = significant strike differential per minute in that round.

Gane · round 1

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jun 26	Alex Pereira	Won	+12
Oct 25	Tom Aspinall	Won	+3
Dec 24	Alexander Volkov	Won	+2
Sep 23	Serghei Spivac	Won	+44
Mar 23	Jon Jones	Lost	+1
Sep 22	Tai Tuivasa	Won	+10
Jan 22	Francis Ngannou	Won	+3
Aug 21	Derrick Lewis	Won	+23
Jun 21	Alexander Volkov	Lost	-9
Feb 21	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	Won	+2
Dec 20	Junior Dos Santos	Won	+28
Dec 19	Tanner Boser	Won	+0
Oct 19	Don'Tale Mayes	Won	+24
Aug 19	Raphael Pessoa	Won	+8

Gane · round 2

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jun 26	Alex Pereira	Won	+30
Dec 24	Alexander Volkov	Lost	+2
Sep 23	Serghei Spivac	Won	+54
Sep 22	Tai Tuivasa	Won	+26
Jan 22	Francis Ngannou	Won	+9
Aug 21	Derrick Lewis	Won	+18
Jun 21	Alexander Volkov	Won	+2
Feb 21	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	Won	+17
Dec 20	Junior Dos Santos	Won	+21
Dec 19	Tanner Boser	Won	+8
Oct 19	Don'Tale Mayes	Won	+8

Gane · round 3

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Dec 24	Alexander Volkov	Lost	+0
Sep 22	Tai Tuivasa	Won	+45
Jan 22	Francis Ngannou	Lost	-3
Aug 21	Derrick Lewis	Won	+41
Jun 21	Alexander Volkov	Won	+19
Feb 21	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	Won	+16
Dec 19	Tanner Boser	Won	+25
Oct 19	Don'Tale Mayes	Won	+30

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jan 22	Francis Ngannou	Lost	+9
Jun 21	Alexander Volkov	Won	+8
Feb 21	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	Won	+19

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jan 22	Francis Ngannou	Won	+2
Jun 21	Alexander Volkov	Won	+0
Feb 21	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	Won	+6

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jun 26	Derrick Lewis	Won	+40
Apr 26	Curtis Blaydes	Lost	-17
Jan 26	Denzel Freeman	Won	+37
Nov 25	Max Gimenis	Won	+6

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jun 26	Derrick Lewis	Won	+39
Apr 26	Curtis Blaydes	Won	-2

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Apr 26	Curtis Blaydes	Won	+22

Fights to R4+

n/a

5.7

Output R1-3 /min

n/a

3.9

Output R4-5 /min

n/a

+1.5

Diff R4-5 /min

n/a

163%

Output kept, R3 vs R1

n/a

What these numbers mean

Where they land: Share of each fighter's landed significant strikes that hit the head, body and legs.
Diff /min: Strikes landed minus strikes absorbed to that target, per minute of fight time.
Head defence: Share of opponents' head strikes that missed.
Rounds won: Share of rounds they won. A round that ends in a finish goes to the fighter who finished it. Other rounds are scored by our judging model (strikes by target, knockdowns, takedowns, control time, submission attempts), which picks the winner of UFC decisions 85% of the time.
Small numbers: Strike differential per minute in that round, and how many UFC fights reached it.
Five-round rows: Output and differential in rounds 4-5 compared with rounds 1-3, for fighters who have been there.
Output kept, R3 vs R1: Round-3 significant strike attempts as a share of round-1 attempts, in fights that got through round 3 (Labs; needs 3 such fights). Over 100% means they throw more late.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Grappling

0.66

Takedowns /15

1.50

24%

TD accuracy

50%

47%

TD defence

78%

Time in control

28%

+4.3%

Net control, opp-adjusted

+24.6%

Time controlled

0.58

Sub attempts /15

0.50

What these numbers mean

Takedowns /15: Takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
TD accuracy / defence: Share of their takedown attempts that land; share of opponents' attempts they stop.
Time in control / controlled: Share of fight time spent controlling the opponent, or being controlled.
Net control, opp-adjusted: Control time minus time controlled, as a share of fight time, corrected for how strong the opponents were. Controlling good opponents counts for more. In testing it predicted who wins the grappling better than the raw number in each of the last five years.
Sub attempts /15: Submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Dropped or stopped

UFC fights: Gane 14, Hokit 4

Drops or stops them on the feet

rarelyoften

Gane 42% · 2 in last 5 · 5 all-time better than avg

Hokit 73% · 3 in last 4 · 3 all-time small sample

Division average 22%

Gets dropped or stopped

rarelyoften

Gane 7% · 0 in last 5 · 1 all-time better than avg

Hokit 0% · 0 in last 4 · 0 all-time small sample

Division average 26%

What these numbers mean

Drops or stops them: Share of UFC fights where they knocked the opponent down or stopped them on the feet. Ground-and-pound finishes without a knockdown do not count.
Gets dropped or stopped: Share of UFC fights where they were knocked down or stopped by strikes (doctor and injury stoppages left out). Lower is better: left = rarely, same direction as the power scale.
Recent fights count more: The latest fight counts fully and a fight three back counts half. Last 5 and all-time counts are shown next to the %.
Black tick: The division average in UFC fights since 2020.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Wins and losses by method

W KOW SUBW DECL DECL SUBL KO

Gane

524

Hokit

13.6

Avg fight, min

7.5

15%

Finished in R1

50%

What these numbers mean

Bar: UFC results by method: wins by KO, submission and decision, then losses.
Avg fight, Finished in R1: Average fight length in minutes, and share of their fights that ended in round 1.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Form

Ciryl Gane

When	Result	How	Close
Jun 26	W Alex Pereira	KO/TKO R2	-110
Oct 25	NC Tom Aspinall	CNC R1	+298
Dec 24	W Alexander Volkov	SD	-370
Sep 23	W Serghei Spivac	KO/TKO R2	—
Mar 23	L Jon Jones	SUB R1	+145

All 14 UFC fights

When	Result	How	Close
Sep 22	W Tai Tuivasa	KO/TKO R3	-500
Jan 22	L Francis Ngannou	UD	-147
Aug 21	W Derrick Lewis	KO/TKO R3	—
Jun 21	W Alexander Volkov	UD	—
Feb 21	W Jairzinho Rozenstruik	UD	—
Dec 20	W Junior Dos Santos	KO/TKO R2	—
Dec 19	W Tanner Boser	UD	—
Oct 19	W Don'Tale Mayes	SUB R3	—
Aug 19	W Raphael Pessoa	SUB R1	—

Josh Hokit

When	Result	How	Close
Jun 26	W Derrick Lewis	KO/TKO R2	-435
Apr 26	W Curtis Blaydes	UD	-118
Jan 26	W Denzel Freeman	KO/TKO R1	-270
Nov 25	W Max Gimenis	KO/TKO R1	-417

Data as of: sheet 11/14 07:19 UTC · odds 11/14 20:24 UTC · line move 11/14 20:10 UTC · Corrections