Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes · UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

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UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Fight Form

Saturday, November 14, 2026 · Madison Square Garden

By @SeanZerillo

Odds updated 2026-11-14 20:24 UTC

FIGHT 12MAIN CARD★ TITLETHIN SAMPLEWomen's Bantamweight · 5 RDS

Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes

3-0-0

UFC record

16-2-0

36.4

Age

38.5

5'8"

Height

5'8"

66"

Reach▶

69"

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Projection

Moneyline · model vs market

Fighter	Model	Listed	Market	Edge
Kayla Harrison	-146 59.3%	-170 63.0%	-170 63.0%	-3.6%
Amanda Nunes	+146 40.7%	+143 41.2%	+140 41.7%	-0.5%

Line move Nunes opener +159 → +140 (+2.8%)line data as of 11/14 20:10 UTC

Fight length · GTD and ITD

Outcome	Projection	Listed	Edge
Goes the distance	+139 41.8%	+157 38.9%	+2.9%
Inside the distance	-139 58.2%	-212 67.9%	-9.8%

Method of victory · projection vs listed

Fighter		DEC	KO	SUB	ITD
Kayla Harrison	Proj	+347 22.3%	+1228 7.5%	+240 29.5%	+170 37.0%
	Listed	+31024.4%	+79711.1%	+19234.2%	+12045.4% KO+Sub
	Edge	-2.0%	-3.6%	-4.8%	-8.4%
Amanda Nunes	Proj	+414 19.5%	+494 16.8%	+2181 4.4%	+371 21.2%
	Listed	+50016.7%	+27726.5%	+18955.0%	+21731.5% KO+Sub
	Edge	+2.8%	-9.7%	-0.6%	-10.3%

What these numbers mean

Model: Our projection: the fair price and win chance for each side.
Listed: The price on our sheet when the projection was published.
Market: The current consensus price. The % is the straight conversion of that price, so it still includes the book's margin.
Edge: Model % minus the listed % (moneyline, goes the distance) or minus the market % (inside the distance, method). Positive means the model likes that side more than the price does. Coloured only at 2.0 points or more either way.
Price unavailable: The odds feed has a price, but it fails our sanity rule (rule v3: a one-sided distance market; this bout's method prices adding up to over 140% or, when complete, under 100%; a draw shorter than +1000; or two of them opening at exactly +100), so we do not show it. Not offered = no price in the feed.
Line move: How far the win chance has moved from the opener to the current line, with the opener of the side it moved toward. The current line uses US-regulated books only.
Spot to watch: Shows only when a tested angle applies to this fight: the striking-edge rule (career strike differential gap 1.9+ per minute, both fighters with 4+ UFC fights), the round-3 rule (R3 differential gap about 2.9+ per minute), or the comeback spot (one fighter much better in round 3 than round 1 relative to the other). Each line gives the test it comes from. None has been tested on live prices.
Price unverified: The listed price was not seen at a US-regulated book in the 24 hours before our projection was published, so we do not colour its edge until the sheet is checked.

Stats

Harrison

Nunes

Striking and cardio

Striking

HeadBodyLegswhere they land

Harrison

71%20%9%

Nunes

68%13%19%

+3.18

Strike diff /min

+2.10

+3.38

Opp-adjusted diff

+2.19

+2.40

Head diff /min

+1.42

+0.66

Body diff /min

+0.25

+0.13

Leg diff /min

+0.43

72% 3 fights

Head defence

66%

Round by round (judging model) · 5 rounds

Rounds wonjudging model	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5
Harrison				n/a	n/a
Nunes

Tap a cell for the fights.
% = share of rounds won (scored by our judging model).
/min = significant strike differential per minute in that round.

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jun 25	Julianna Pena	Won	+2
Oct 24	Ketlen Vieira	Won	+12
Apr 24	Holly Holm	Won	+45

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jun 25	Julianna Pena	Won	+19
Oct 24	Ketlen Vieira	Won	+1
Apr 24	Holly Holm	Won	+4

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Oct 24	Ketlen Vieira	Won	+18

Nunes · round 1

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jun 23	Irene Aldana	Won	+13
Jul 22	Julianna Pena	Won	+4
Dec 21	Julianna Pena	Won	+5
Mar 21	Megan Anderson	Won	+16
Jun 20	Felicia Spencer	Won	+19
Dec 19	Germaine de Randamie	Won	+31
Jul 19	Holly Holm	Won	+6
Dec 18	Cristiane Justino	Won	+10
May 18	Raquel Pennington	Won	+14
Sep 17	Valentina Shevchenko	Won	+14
Dec 16	Ronda Rousey	Won	+20
Jul 16	Miesha Tate	Won	+37
Mar 16	Valentina Shevchenko	Won	+6
Aug 15	Sara McMann	Won	+25
Mar 15	Shayna Baszler	Won	+14
Sep 14	Cat Zingano	Won	+18
Nov 13	Germaine de Randamie	Won	+13
Aug 13	Sheila Gaff	Won	+7

Nunes · round 2

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jun 23	Irene Aldana	Won	+20
Jul 22	Julianna Pena	Won	-6
Dec 21	Julianna Pena	Lost	-38
Jun 20	Felicia Spencer	Won	+12
Dec 19	Germaine de Randamie	Won	-7
May 18	Raquel Pennington	Won	+9
Sep 17	Valentina Shevchenko	Won	+4
Mar 16	Valentina Shevchenko	Won	+19
Sep 14	Cat Zingano	Lost	-19

Nunes · round 3

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jun 23	Irene Aldana	Won	+15
Jul 22	Julianna Pena	Won	+8
Jun 20	Felicia Spencer	Won	+19
Dec 19	Germaine de Randamie	Won	+8
May 18	Raquel Pennington	Won	+6
Sep 17	Valentina Shevchenko	Won	+2
Mar 16	Valentina Shevchenko	Lost	-14
Sep 14	Cat Zingano	Lost	-17

Nunes · round 4

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jun 23	Irene Aldana	Won	+35
Jul 22	Julianna Pena	Won	+12
Jun 20	Felicia Spencer	Won	+21
Dec 19	Germaine de Randamie	Won	+8
May 18	Raquel Pennington	Won	+19
Sep 17	Valentina Shevchenko	Lost	+4

Nunes · round 5

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jun 23	Irene Aldana	Won	+18
Jul 22	Julianna Pena	Won	+7
Jun 20	Felicia Spencer	Won	+11
Dec 19	Germaine de Randamie	Won	-1
May 18	Raquel Pennington	Won	+12
Sep 17	Valentina Shevchenko	Lost	-10

n/a

Fights to R4+

n/a

Output R1-3 /min

4.7

n/a

Output R4-5 /min

4.0

n/a

Diff R4-5 /min

+2.4

n/a

Output kept, R3 vs R1

71%

What these numbers mean

Where they land: Share of each fighter's landed significant strikes that hit the head, body and legs.
Diff /min: Strikes landed minus strikes absorbed to that target, per minute of fight time.
Head defence: Share of opponents' head strikes that missed.
Rounds won: Share of rounds they won. A round that ends in a finish goes to the fighter who finished it. Other rounds are scored by our judging model (strikes by target, knockdowns, takedowns, control time, submission attempts), which picks the winner of UFC decisions 85% of the time.
Small numbers: Strike differential per minute in that round, and how many UFC fights reached it.
Five-round rows: Output and differential in rounds 4-5 compared with rounds 1-3, for fighters who have been there.
Output kept, R3 vs R1: Round-3 significant strike attempts as a share of round-1 attempts, in fights that got through round 3 (Labs; needs 3 such fights). Over 100% means they throw more late.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Grappling

2.84

Takedowns /15

2.79

38%

TD accuracy

57%

100%

TD defence

81%

59%

Time in control

34%

+61.0%

Net control, opp-adjusted

+28.8%

Time controlled

0.95

Sub attempts /15

0.73

What these numbers mean

Takedowns /15: Takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
TD accuracy / defence: Share of their takedown attempts that land; share of opponents' attempts they stop.
Time in control / controlled: Share of fight time spent controlling the opponent, or being controlled.
Net control, opp-adjusted: Control time minus time controlled, as a share of fight time, corrected for how strong the opponents were. Controlling good opponents counts for more. In testing it predicted who wins the grappling better than the raw number in each of the last five years.
Sub attempts /15: Submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Dropped or stopped

UFC fights: Harrison 3, Nunes 18

Drops or stops them on the feet

rarelyoften

Harrison 0% · 0 in last 3 · 0 all-time small sample

Nunes 30% · 1 in last 5 · 6 all-time better than avg

Division average 9%

Gets dropped or stopped

rarelyoften

Harrison 0% · 0 in last 3 · 0 all-time small sample

Nunes 1% · 0 in last 5 · 1 all-time better than avg

Division average 12%

What these numbers mean

Drops or stops them: Share of UFC fights where they knocked the opponent down or stopped them on the feet. Ground-and-pound finishes without a knockdown do not count.
Gets dropped or stopped: Share of UFC fights where they were knocked down or stopped by strikes (doctor and injury stoppages left out). Lower is better: left = rarely, same direction as the power scale.
Recent fights count more: The latest fight counts fully and a fight three back counts half. Last 5 and all-time counts are shown next to the %.
Black tick: The division average in UFC fights since 2020.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Wins and losses by method

W KOW SUBW DECL DECL SUBL KO

Harrison

Nunes

736

10.6

Avg fight, min

11.4

Finished in R1

50%

What these numbers mean

Bar: UFC results by method: wins by KO, submission and decision, then losses.
Avg fight, Finished in R1: Average fight length in minutes, and share of their fights that ended in round 1.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Form

Kayla Harrison

When	Result	How	Close
Jun 25	W Julianna Pena	SUB R2	-714
Oct 24	W Ketlen Vieira	UD	-1111
Apr 24	W Holly Holm	SUB R2	-455

Amanda Nunes

When	Result	How	Close
Jun 23	W Irene Aldana	UD	-312
Jul 22	W Julianna Pena	UD	-263
Dec 21	L Julianna Pena	SUB R2	—
Mar 21	W Megan Anderson	SUB R1	—
Jun 20	W Felicia Spencer	UD	—

All 18 UFC fights

When	Result	How	Close
Dec 19	W Germaine de Randamie	UD	—
Jul 19	W Holly Holm	KO/TKO R1	—
Dec 18	W Cristiane Justino	KO/TKO R1	—
May 18	W Raquel Pennington	KO/TKO R5	—
Sep 17	W Valentina Shevchenko	SD	—
Dec 16	W Ronda Rousey	KO/TKO R1	—
Jul 16	W Miesha Tate	SUB R1	—
Mar 16	W Valentina Shevchenko	UD	—
Aug 15	W Sara McMann	SUB R1	—
Mar 15	W Shayna Baszler	KO/TKO R1	—
Sep 14	L Cat Zingano	KO/TKO R3	—
Nov 13	W Germaine de Randamie	KO/TKO R1	—
Aug 13	W Sheila Gaff	KO/TKO R1	—

Data as of: sheet 11/14 07:19 UTC · odds 11/14 20:24 UTC · line move 11/14 20:10 UTC · Corrections