Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland · UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

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UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Fight Form

Saturday, November 14, 2026 · Madison Square Garden

By @SeanZerillo

Odds updated 2026-11-14 20:24 UTC

FIGHT 10MAIN CARDWelterweight · 3 RDS

Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland

8-3-0

UFC record

16-12-0 (1 NC)

33.6

Age

34.0

6'1"

Height▶

6'3"

71"

Reach▶▶

81"

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Projection

Moneyline · model vs market

Fighter	Model	Listed	Market	Edge
Uros Medic	-141 58.4%	-163 62.0%	-160 61.5%	-3.5%
Kevin Holland	+141 41.6%	+140 41.7%	+130 43.5%	-0.1%

Line move Holland opener +144 → +136 (+1.5%)line data as of 11/14 20:10 UTC

Fight length · GTD and ITD

Outcome	Projection	Listed	Edge
Goes the distance	+326 23.5%	+400 20.0%	+3.5%
Inside the distance	-326 76.5%	-650 86.7%	-10.2%

Method of victory · projection vs listed

Fighter		DEC	KO	SUB	ITD
Uros Medic	Proj	+715 12.3%	+142 41.2%	+1934 4.9%	+117 46.2%
	Listed	+77411.4%	+10050.0%	+12007.7%	-13657.7% KO+Sub
	Edge	+0.8%	-8.8%	-2.8%	-11.5%
Kevin Holland	Proj	+791 11.2%	+500 16.7%	+632 13.7%	+230 30.3%
	Listed	+90010.0%	+34422.5%	+46917.6%	+14940.1% KO+Sub
	Edge	+1.2%	-5.8%	-3.9%	-9.8%

What these numbers mean

Model: Our projection: the fair price and win chance for each side.
Listed: The price on our sheet when the projection was published.
Market: The current consensus price. The % is the straight conversion of that price, so it still includes the book's margin.
Edge: Model % minus the listed % (moneyline, goes the distance) or minus the market % (inside the distance, method). Positive means the model likes that side more than the price does. Coloured only at 2.0 points or more either way.
Price unavailable: The odds feed has a price, but it fails our sanity rule (rule v3: a one-sided distance market; this bout's method prices adding up to over 140% or, when complete, under 100%; a draw shorter than +1000; or two of them opening at exactly +100), so we do not show it. Not offered = no price in the feed.
Line move: How far the win chance has moved from the opener to the current line, with the opener of the side it moved toward. The current line uses US-regulated books only.
Spot to watch: Shows only when a tested angle applies to this fight: the striking-edge rule (career strike differential gap 1.9+ per minute, both fighters with 4+ UFC fights), the round-3 rule (R3 differential gap about 2.9+ per minute), or the comeback spot (one fighter much better in round 3 than round 1 relative to the other). Each line gives the test it comes from. None has been tested on live prices.
Price unverified: The listed price was not seen at a US-regulated book in the 24 hours before our projection was published, so we do not colour its edge until the sheet is checked.

Stats

Medic

Holland

Striking and cardio

Striking

HeadBodyLegswhere they land

Medic

68%21%10%

Holland

55%19%27%

+1.78

Strike diff /min

+0.88

+1.76

Opp-adjusted diff

+0.98

+1.54

Head diff /min

+0.42

+0.40

Body diff /min

-0.03

-0.17

Leg diff /min

+0.48

65%

Head defence

60%

Round by round (judging model)

Rounds wonjudging model	R1	R2	R3
Medic
Holland

Tap a cell for the fights.
% = share of rounds won (scored by our judging model).
/min = significant strike differential per minute in that round.

Medic · round 1

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Aug 26	Daniel Rodriguez	Won	+10
Feb 26	Geoff Neal	Won	+7
Nov 25	Muslim Salikhov	Won	+6
Aug 25	Gilbert Urbina	Won	+0
Jan 25	Punahele Soriano	Lost	-11
Apr 24	Tim Means	Won	+0
Nov 23	Myktybek Orolbai	Lost	+9
Jul 23	Matthew Semelsberger	Lost	+1
May 22	Omar Morales	Won	+7
Sep 21	Jalin Turner	Lost	-19
Mar 21	Aalon Cruz	Won	+45

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Nov 23	Myktybek Orolbai	Lost	-3
Jul 23	Matthew Semelsberger	Won	+1
May 22	Omar Morales	Won	+7

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jul 23	Matthew Semelsberger	Won	+15

Holland · round 1

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Apr 26	Randy Brown	Won	+2
Oct 25	Mike Malott	Lost	-3
Jul 25	Daniel Rodriguez	Won	+11
Jun 25	Vicente Luque	Won	+13
Mar 25	Gunnar Nelson	Won	+14
Jan 25	Reinier de Ridder	Lost	-1
Oct 24	Roman Dolidze	Lost	-1
Jun 24	Michal Oleksiejczuk	Won	+0
Mar 24	Michael Page	Lost	-6
Sep 23	Jack Della Maddalena	Lost	-1
Jul 23	Michael Chiesa	Won	+5
Apr 23	Santiago Ponzinibbio	Won	+16
Dec 22	Stephen Thompson	Won	+15
Sep 22	Khamzat Chimaev	Lost	+0
Jun 22	Tim Means	Won	+13
Mar 22	Alex Oliveira	Lost	+12
Oct 21	Kyle Daukaus	Lost	-6
Apr 21	Marvin Vettori	Lost	+7
Mar 21	Derek Brunson	Lost	-11
Dec 20	Jacare Souza	Won	+13
Oct 20	Charlie Ontiveros	Won	+9
Sep 20	Darren Stewart	Won	+16
Aug 20	Joaquin Buckley	Won	+12
May 20	Anthony Hernandez	Won	+14
Oct 19	Brendan Allen	Won	+12
Jun 19	Alessio Di Chirico	Lost	+3
Mar 19	Gerald Meerschaert	Won	+7
Nov 18	John Phillips	Won	+48
Aug 18	Thiago Santos	Lost	-23

Holland · round 2

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Apr 26	Randy Brown	Won	+5
Oct 25	Mike Malott	Lost	-3
Jul 25	Daniel Rodriguez	Lost	-19
Jun 25	Vicente Luque	Won	+3
Mar 25	Gunnar Nelson	Won	+14
Mar 24	Michael Page	Won	+6
Sep 23	Jack Della Maddalena	Won	+15
Apr 23	Santiago Ponzinibbio	Won	+8
Dec 22	Stephen Thompson	Lost	-5
Jun 22	Tim Means	Won	+2
Mar 22	Alex Oliveira	Won	+17
Apr 21	Marvin Vettori	Lost	-1
Mar 21	Derek Brunson	Lost	+6
Sep 20	Darren Stewart	Won	+3
Aug 20	Joaquin Buckley	Won	+24
Oct 19	Brendan Allen	Lost	+0
Jun 19	Alessio Di Chirico	Lost	-10
Mar 19	Gerald Meerschaert	Lost	+9
Nov 18	John Phillips	Won	+11
Aug 18	Thiago Santos	Won	+6

Holland · round 3

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Apr 26	Randy Brown	Lost	+3
Oct 25	Mike Malott	Lost	+9
Jul 25	Daniel Rodriguez	Won	+13
Mar 25	Gunnar Nelson	Lost	+12
Mar 24	Michael Page	Lost	-12
Sep 23	Jack Della Maddalena	Won	+8
Apr 23	Santiago Ponzinibbio	Won	-2
Dec 22	Stephen Thompson	Lost	-18
Apr 21	Marvin Vettori	Lost	+2
Mar 21	Derek Brunson	Lost	-4
Sep 20	Darren Stewart	Lost	-2
Aug 20	Joaquin Buckley	Won	+3
Jun 19	Alessio Di Chirico	Won	+14
Mar 19	Gerald Meerschaert	Lost	+1
Nov 18	John Phillips	Won	+13
Aug 18	Thiago Santos	Lost	-21

n/a

Output kept, R3 vs R1

76%

What these numbers mean

Where they land: Share of each fighter's landed significant strikes that hit the head, body and legs.
Diff /min: Strikes landed minus strikes absorbed to that target, per minute of fight time.
Head defence: Share of opponents' head strikes that missed.
Rounds won: Share of rounds they won. A round that ends in a finish goes to the fighter who finished it. Other rounds are scored by our judging model (strikes by target, knockdowns, takedowns, control time, submission attempts), which picks the winner of UFC decisions 85% of the time.
Small numbers: Strike differential per minute in that round, and how many UFC fights reached it.
Five-round rows: Output and differential in rounds 4-5 compared with rounds 1-3, for fighters who have been there.
Output kept, R3 vs R1: Round-3 significant strike attempts as a share of round-1 attempts, in fights that got through round 3 (Labs; needs 3 such fights). Over 100% means they throw more late.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Grappling

0.36

Takedowns /15

0.83

50%

TD accuracy

40%

56%

TD defence

58%

Time in control

13%

-26.4%

Net control, opp-adjusted

-18.1%

30%

Time controlled

33%

0.00

Sub attempts /15

0.63

What these numbers mean

Takedowns /15: Takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
TD accuracy / defence: Share of their takedown attempts that land; share of opponents' attempts they stop.
Time in control / controlled: Share of fight time spent controlling the opponent, or being controlled.
Net control, opp-adjusted: Control time minus time controlled, as a share of fight time, corrected for how strong the opponents were. Controlling good opponents counts for more. In testing it predicted who wins the grappling better than the raw number in each of the last five years.
Sub attempts /15: Submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Dropped or stopped

UFC fights: Medic 11, Holland 29

Drops or stops them on the feet

rarelyoften

Medic 83% · 4 in last 5 · 8 all-time better than avg

Holland 24% · 2 in last 5 · 6 all-time

Division average 21%

Gets dropped or stopped

rarelyoften

Medic 25% · 2 in last 5 · 3 all-time

Holland 14% · 1 in last 5 · 2 all-time better than avg

Division average 23%

What these numbers mean

Drops or stops them: Share of UFC fights where they knocked the opponent down or stopped them on the feet. Ground-and-pound finishes without a knockdown do not count.
Gets dropped or stopped: Share of UFC fights where they were knocked down or stopped by strikes (doctor and injury stoppages left out). Lower is better: left = rarely, same direction as the power scale.
Recent fights count more: The latest fight counts fully and a fight three back counts half. Last 5 and all-time counts are shown next to the %.
Black tick: The division average in UFC fights since 2020.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Wins and losses by method

W KOW SUBW DECL DECL SUBL KO

Medic

821

Holland

56573

3.8

Avg fight, min

10.9

73%

Finished in R1

29%

What these numbers mean

Bar: UFC results by method: wins by KO, submission and decision, then losses.
Avg fight, Finished in R1: Average fight length in minutes, and share of their fights that ended in round 1.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Form

Uros Medic

When	Result	How	Close
Aug 26	W Daniel Rodriguez	KO/TKO R1	-328
Feb 26	W Geoff Neal	KO/TKO R1	+170
Nov 25	W Muslim Salikhov	KO/TKO R1	-131
Aug 25	W Gilbert Urbina	KO/TKO R1	-357
Jan 25	L Punahele Soriano	KO/TKO R1	-206

All 11 UFC fights

When	Result	How	Close
Apr 24	W Tim Means	KO/TKO R1	-270
Nov 23	L Myktybek Orolbai	SUB R2	-104
Jul 23	W Matthew Semelsberger	KO/TKO R3	+175
May 22	W Omar Morales	KO/TKO R2	+130
Sep 21	L Jalin Turner	SUB R1	—
Mar 21	W Aalon Cruz	KO/TKO R1	—

Kevin Holland

When	Result	How	Close
Apr 26	W Randy Brown	UD	-123
Oct 25	L Mike Malott	UD	-109
Jul 25	L Daniel Rodriguez	UD	-625
Jun 25	W Vicente Luque	SUB R2	-179
Mar 25	W Gunnar Nelson	UD	-102

All 29 UFC fights

When	Result	How	Close
Jan 25	L Reinier de Ridder	SUB R1	+114
Oct 24	L Roman Dolidze	KO/TKO R1	-147
Jun 24	W Michal Oleksiejczuk	SUB R1	-294
Mar 24	L Michael Page	UD	-135
Sep 23	L Jack Della Maddalena	SD	+101
Jul 23	W Michael Chiesa	SUB R1	-145
Apr 23	W Santiago Ponzinibbio	KO/TKO R3	-244
Dec 22	L Stephen Thompson	KO/TKO R4	-185
Sep 22	L Khamzat Chimaev	SUB R1	+460
Jun 22	W Tim Means	SUB R2	-333
Mar 22	W Alex Oliveira	KO/TKO R2	-400
Oct 21	NC Kyle Daukaus	Overturned R1	—
Apr 21	L Marvin Vettori	UD	—
Mar 21	L Derek Brunson	UD	—
Dec 20	W Jacare Souza	KO/TKO R1	—
Oct 20	W Charlie Ontiveros	SUB R1	—
Sep 20	W Darren Stewart	SD	—
Aug 20	W Joaquin Buckley	KO/TKO R3	—
May 20	W Anthony Hernandez	KO/TKO R1	—
Oct 19	L Brendan Allen	SUB R2	—
Jun 19	W Alessio Di Chirico	UD	—
Mar 19	W Gerald Meerschaert	SD	—
Nov 18	W John Phillips	SUB R3	—
Aug 18	L Thiago Santos	UD	—

Data as of: sheet 11/14 07:19 UTC · odds 11/14 20:24 UTC · line move 11/14 20:10 UTC · Corrections