Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke · UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

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UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Fight Form

Saturday, November 14, 2026 · Madison Square Garden

By @SeanZerillo

Odds updated 2026-11-14 20:24 UTC

FIGHT 8PRELIMSWelterweight · 3 RDS

Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke

12-9-1

UFC record

5-2-0

43.8

Age▶▶

36.4

6'0"

Height◀

5'9"

75"

Reach◀

72"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Projection

Moneyline · model vs market

Fighter	Model	Listed	Market	Edge
Stephen Thompson	-135 57.4%	-138 58.0%	-130 56.5%	-0.6%price unverified
Charles Radtke	+135 42.6%	+122 45.0%	+110 47.6%	-2.4%

Line move Radtke opener +118 → +110 (+1.7%)line data as of 11/14 20:10 UTC

Fight length · GTD and ITD

Outcome	Projection	Listed	Edge
Goes the distance	-151 60.2%	-155 60.8%	-0.6%
Inside the distance	+151 39.8%	+118 45.9%	-6.1%

Method of victory · projection vs listed

Fighter		DEC	KO	SUB	ITD
Stephen Thompson	Proj	+168 37.3%	+480 17.2%	+3401 2.9%	+398 20.1%
	Listed	+15040.0%	+45018.2%	+26683.6%	+35921.8% KO+Sub
	Edge	-2.7%	-1.0%	-0.8%	-1.7%
Charles Radtke	Proj	+336 22.9%	+663 13.1%	+1417 6.6%	+408 19.7%
	Listed	not offered	not offered	not offered	not offered
	Edge

What these numbers mean

Model: Our projection: the fair price and win chance for each side.
Listed: The price on our sheet when the projection was published.
Market: The current consensus price. The % is the straight conversion of that price, so it still includes the book's margin.
Edge: Model % minus the listed % (moneyline, goes the distance) or minus the market % (inside the distance, method). Positive means the model likes that side more than the price does. Coloured only at 2.0 points or more either way.
Price unavailable: The odds feed has a price, but it fails our sanity rule (rule v3: a one-sided distance market; this bout's method prices adding up to over 140% or, when complete, under 100%; a draw shorter than +1000; or two of them opening at exactly +100), so we do not show it. Not offered = no price in the feed.
Line move: How far the win chance has moved from the opener to the current line, with the opener of the side it moved toward. The current line uses US-regulated books only.
Spot to watch: Shows only when a tested angle applies to this fight: the striking-edge rule (career strike differential gap 1.9+ per minute, both fighters with 4+ UFC fights), the round-3 rule (R3 differential gap about 2.9+ per minute), or the comeback spot (one fighter much better in round 3 than round 1 relative to the other). Each line gives the test it comes from. None has been tested on live prices.
Price unverified: The listed price was not seen at a US-regulated book in the 24 hours before our projection was published, so we do not colour its edge until the sheet is checked.

Stats

Thompson

Radtke

Striking and cardio

Striking

HeadBodyLegswhere they land

Thompson

66%24%10%

Radtke

85%5%10%

+1.04

Strike diff /min

+0.05

+1.22

Opp-adjusted diff

-0.14

+1.08

Head diff /min

+0.96

+0.42

Body diff /min

-0.63

-0.45

Leg diff /min

-0.28

66%

Head defence

66%

Round by round (judging model)

Rounds wonjudging model	R1	R2	R3
Thompson
Radtke

Tap a cell for the fights.
% = share of rounds won (scored by our judging model).
/min = significant strike differential per minute in that round.

Thompson · round 1

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jul 25	Gabriel Bonfim	Lost	-8
Oct 24	Joaquin Buckley	Lost	+9
Dec 23	Shavkat Rakhmonov	Lost	-2
Dec 22	Kevin Holland	Lost	-15
Dec 21	Belal Muhammad	Lost	-34
Jul 21	Gilbert Burns	Lost	-5
Dec 20	Geoff Neal	Won	+18
Nov 19	Vicente Luque	Won	-6
Mar 19	Anthony Pettis	Won	+5
May 18	Darren Till	Won	+1
Nov 17	Jorge Masvidal	Won	+1
Mar 17	Tyron Woodley	Won	+1
Nov 16	Tyron Woodley	Lost	-13
Jun 16	Rory MacDonald	Won	+5
Feb 16	Johny Hendricks	Won	+17
Jul 15	Jake Ellenberger	Won	+15
Sep 14	Patrick Cote	Lost	-13
Feb 14	Robert Whittaker	Won	+19
Sep 13	Chris Clements	Won	-5
May 13	Nah-Shon Burrell	Won	-3
Apr 12	Matt Brown	Lost	+3
Feb 12	Dan Stittgen	Won	+14

Thompson · round 2

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jul 25	Gabriel Bonfim	Won	+13
Oct 24	Joaquin Buckley	Won	+10
Dec 23	Shavkat Rakhmonov	Lost	-10
Dec 22	Kevin Holland	Won	+5
Dec 21	Belal Muhammad	Lost	-3
Jul 21	Gilbert Burns	Lost	-1
Dec 20	Geoff Neal	Won	+15
Nov 19	Vicente Luque	Won	+26
Mar 19	Anthony Pettis	Lost	+10
May 18	Darren Till	Lost	-3
Nov 17	Jorge Masvidal	Won	+4
Mar 17	Tyron Woodley	Won	+0
Nov 16	Tyron Woodley	Lost	+2
Jun 16	Rory MacDonald	Won	+7
Sep 14	Patrick Cote	Won	+11
Sep 13	Chris Clements	Won	+11
May 13	Nah-Shon Burrell	Won	+7
Apr 12	Matt Brown	Won	+15

Thompson · round 3

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jul 25	Gabriel Bonfim	Lost	-3
Oct 24	Joaquin Buckley	Lost	-4
Dec 22	Kevin Holland	Won	+18
Dec 21	Belal Muhammad	Lost	-2
Jul 21	Gilbert Burns	Lost	-4
Dec 20	Geoff Neal	Won	+18
Nov 19	Vicente Luque	Won	+41
May 18	Darren Till	Lost	-1
Nov 17	Jorge Masvidal	Won	+23
Mar 17	Tyron Woodley	Lost	-1
Nov 16	Tyron Woodley	Won	+2
Jun 16	Rory MacDonald	Won	+8
Sep 14	Patrick Cote	Won	+13
May 13	Nah-Shon Burrell	Won	+5
Apr 12	Matt Brown	Won	+13

Radtke · round 1

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Apr 26	Francisco Prado	Won	-1
Nov 25	Daniel Frunza	Won	+6
May 25	Mike Malott	Lost	-17
Nov 24	Matthew Semelsberger	Won	+5
Jun 24	Carlos Prates	Lost	-1
Feb 24	Gilbert Urbina	Won	+14
Sep 23	Blood Diamond	Won	+0

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Apr 26	Francisco Prado	Lost	-5
Nov 25	Daniel Frunza	Won	+18
May 25	Mike Malott	Lost	-9
Sep 23	Blood Diamond	Won	+7

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Apr 26	Francisco Prado	Won	+1
Nov 25	Daniel Frunza	Won	+1
Sep 23	Blood Diamond	Lost	-16

Strike differential per minute, by round

Thompson +0.0 → +1.4 → +1.7 · Radtke +0.2 → +0.7 → -1.0 (14 min)

Above 0 = landed more significant strikes per minute than the opponent in that round; below 0 = landed fewer.
Hollow grey dot = under 15 UFC minutes in that round (minutes shown), so a thin sample.

Radtke: R2 sits right at the 15-minute floor; thin sample.

190%

Output kept, R3 vs R1

n/a

What these numbers mean

Where they land: Share of each fighter's landed significant strikes that hit the head, body and legs.
Diff /min: Strikes landed minus strikes absorbed to that target, per minute of fight time.
Head defence: Share of opponents' head strikes that missed.
Rounds won: Share of rounds they won. A round that ends in a finish goes to the fighter who finished it. Other rounds are scored by our judging model (strikes by target, knockdowns, takedowns, control time, submission attempts), which picks the winner of UFC decisions 85% of the time.
Small numbers: Strike differential per minute in that round, and how many UFC fights reached it.
Five-round rows: Output and differential in rounds 4-5 compared with rounds 1-3, for fighters who have been there.
Output kept, R3 vs R1: Round-3 significant strike attempts as a share of round-1 attempts, in fights that got through round 3 (Labs; needs 3 such fights). Over 100% means they throw more late.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Grappling

0.23

Takedowns /15

1.99

36%

TD accuracy

44%

63%

TD defence

100%

Time in control

51%

-10.7%

Net control, opp-adjusted

+45.1%

19%

Time controlled

0.00

Sub attempts /15

0.50

What these numbers mean

Takedowns /15: Takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
TD accuracy / defence: Share of their takedown attempts that land; share of opponents' attempts they stop.
Time in control / controlled: Share of fight time spent controlling the opponent, or being controlled.
Net control, opp-adjusted: Control time minus time controlled, as a share of fight time, corrected for how strong the opponents were. Controlling good opponents counts for more. In testing it predicted who wins the grappling better than the raw number in each of the last five years.
Sub attempts /15: Submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Dropped or stopped

UFC fights: Thompson 22, Radtke 7

Drops or stops them on the feet

rarelyoften

Thompson 9% · 0 in last 5 · 8 all-time worse than avg

Radtke 21% · 1 in last 5 · 2 all-time

Division average 21%

Gets dropped or stopped

rarelyoften

Thompson 26% · 1 in last 5 · 6 all-time

Radtke 26% · 2 in last 5 · 2 all-time

Division average 23%

What these numbers mean

Drops or stops them: Share of UFC fights where they knocked the opponent down or stopped them on the feet. Ground-and-pound finishes without a knockdown do not count.
Gets dropped or stopped: Share of UFC fights where they were knocked down or stopped by strikes (doctor and injury stoppages left out). Lower is better: left = rarely, same direction as the power scale.
Recent fights count more: The latest fight counts fully and a fight three back counts half. Last 5 and all-time counts are shown next to the %.
Black tick: The division average in UFC fights since 2020.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Wins and losses by method

W KOW SUBW DECL DECL SUBL KO

Thompson

6662

Radtke

2122

14.0

Avg fight, min

8.6

19%

Finished in R1

43%

What these numbers mean

Bar: UFC results by method: wins by KO, submission and decision, then losses.
Avg fight, Finished in R1: Average fight length in minutes, and share of their fights that ended in round 1.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Form

Stephen Thompson

When	Result	How	Close
Jul 25	L Gabriel Bonfim	SD	+375
Oct 24	L Joaquin Buckley	KO/TKO R3	+180
Dec 23	L Shavkat Rakhmonov	SUB R2	+470
Dec 22	W Kevin Holland	KO/TKO R4	+155
Dec 21	L Belal Muhammad	UD	—

All 22 UFC fights

When	Result	How	Close
Jul 21	L Gilbert Burns	UD	—
Dec 20	W Geoff Neal	UD	—
Nov 19	W Vicente Luque	UD	—
Mar 19	L Anthony Pettis	KO/TKO R2	—
May 18	L Darren Till	UD	—
Nov 17	W Jorge Masvidal	UD	—
Mar 17	L Tyron Woodley	MD	—
Nov 16	D Tyron Woodley	MD	—
Jun 16	W Rory MacDonald	UD	—
Feb 16	W Johny Hendricks	KO/TKO R1	—
Jul 15	W Jake Ellenberger	KO/TKO R1	—
Sep 14	W Patrick Cote	UD	—
Feb 14	W Robert Whittaker	KO/TKO R1	—
Sep 13	W Chris Clements	KO/TKO R2	—
May 13	W Nah-Shon Burrell	UD	—
Apr 12	L Matt Brown	UD	—
Feb 12	W Dan Stittgen	KO/TKO R1	—

Charles Radtke

When	Result	How	Close
Apr 26	W Francisco Prado	UD	-192
Nov 25	W Daniel Frunza	SUB R3	-179
May 25	L Mike Malott	KO/TKO R2	+179
Nov 24	W Matthew Semelsberger	KO/TKO R1	-175
Jun 24	L Carlos Prates	KO/TKO R1	+178

All 7 UFC fights

When	Result	How	Close
Feb 24	W Gilbert Urbina	KO/TKO R1	+170
Sep 23	W Blood Diamond	UD	—

Data as of: sheet 11/14 07:19 UTC · odds 11/14 20:24 UTC · line move 11/14 20:10 UTC · Corrections