Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan · UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

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UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Fight Form

Saturday, November 14, 2026 · Madison Square Garden

By @SeanZerillo

Odds updated 2026-11-14 20:24 UTC

FIGHT 7PRELIMSLightweight · 3 RDS

Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan

15-11-0 (1 NC)

UFC record

6-2-0

38.1

Age▶

33.5

5'8"

Height▶

5'10"

70"

Reach

71"

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Projection

Moneyline · model vs market

Fighter	Model	Listed	Market	Edge
Drew Dober	+202 33.1%	+160 38.5%	+154 39.4%	-5.4%
Chris Duncan	-202 66.9%	-188 65.3%	-190 65.5%	+1.7%

Line move Duncan opener -164 → -189 (+3.0%)line data as of 11/14 20:10 UTC

Fight length · GTD and ITD

Outcome	Projection	Listed	Edge
Goes the distance	+238 29.6%	+277 26.5%	+3.1%
Inside the distance	-238 70.4%	-400 80.0%	-9.6%

Method of victory · projection vs listed

Fighter		DEC	KO	SUB	ITD
Drew Dober	Proj	+1273 7.3%	+340 22.7%	+3151 3.1%	+288 25.8%
	Listed	+10009.1%	+21731.5%	+20004.8%	+17536.3% KO+Sub
	Edge	-1.8%	-8.8%	-1.7%	-10.5%
Chris Duncan	Proj	+348 22.3%	+409 19.7%	+301 25.0%	+124 44.6%
	Listed	+42019.2%	+27326.8%	+26427.5%	-11954.3% KO+Sub
	Edge	+3.1%	-7.2%	-2.5%	-9.7%

Spot to watch

If Duncan loses R1 on strikes, don't write off R3: fighters with the better late-round record who dropped R1 won R3 on strikes 44% of the time vs 35% for all R1 losers. Based on 432 fights. Tested on round results, not live prices.

See round trend: Stats › Striking & cardio

What these numbers mean

Model: Our projection: the fair price and win chance for each side.
Listed: The price on our sheet when the projection was published.
Market: The current consensus price. The % is the straight conversion of that price, so it still includes the book's margin.
Edge: Model % minus the listed % (moneyline, goes the distance) or minus the market % (inside the distance, method). Positive means the model likes that side more than the price does. Coloured only at 2.0 points or more either way.
Price unavailable: The odds feed has a price, but it fails our sanity rule (rule v3: a one-sided distance market; this bout's method prices adding up to over 140% or, when complete, under 100%; a draw shorter than +1000; or two of them opening at exactly +100), so we do not show it. Not offered = no price in the feed.
Line move: How far the win chance has moved from the opener to the current line, with the opener of the side it moved toward. The current line uses US-regulated books only.
Spot to watch: Shows only when a tested angle applies to this fight: the striking-edge rule (career strike differential gap 1.9+ per minute, both fighters with 4+ UFC fights), the round-3 rule (R3 differential gap about 2.9+ per minute), or the comeback spot (one fighter much better in round 3 than round 1 relative to the other). Each line gives the test it comes from. None has been tested on live prices.
Price unverified: The listed price was not seen at a US-regulated book in the 24 hours before our projection was published, so we do not colour its edge until the sheet is checked.

Stats

Dober

Duncan

Striking and cardio

Striking

HeadBodyLegswhere they land

Dober

63%23%14%

Duncan

60%23%17%

+0.15

Strike diff /min

+0.37

+0.15

Opp-adjusted diff

+0.37

-0.24

Head diff /min

-0.33

+0.13

Body diff /min

+0.56

+0.27

Leg diff /min

+0.14

59%

Head defence

58%

Round by round (judging model)

Rounds wonjudging model	R1	R2	R3
Dober
Duncan

Tap a cell for the fights.
% = share of rounds won (scored by our judging model).
/min = significant strike differential per minute in that round.

Dober · round 1

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Mar 26	Michael Johnson	Lost	-7
Oct 25	Kyle Prepolec	Won	+11
Mar 25	Manuel Torres	Lost	-20
Jul 24	Jean Silva	Won	+4
Feb 24	Renato Moicano	Lost	+0
Oct 23	Ricky Glenn	Won	+25
May 23	Matt Frevola	Lost	-15
Dec 22	King Green	Lost	-22
Jul 22	Rafael Alves	Lost	+0
Mar 22	Terrance McKinney	Won	-19
Jun 21	Brad Riddell	Won	+4
Mar 21	Islam Makhachev	Lost	+2
May 20	Alexander Hernandez	Won	+8
Jan 20	Nasrat Haqparast	Won	+6
Jun 19	Marco Polo Reyes	Won	+11
Mar 19	Beneil Dariush	Won	+4
Aug 18	Jon Tuck	Won	+7
Jan 18	Frank Camacho	Won	+13
Jul 17	Joshua Burkman	Won	+4
Dec 16	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	Lost	-11
Sep 16	Jason Gonzalez	Won	+10
Jan 16	Scott Holtzman	Won	+1
Jun 15	Efrain Escudero	Lost	-1
Mar 15	Leandro Silva	Lost	-4
Dec 14	Jamie Varner	Won	+1
May 14	Nick Hein	Lost	-2
Nov 13	Sean Spencer	Lost	-3

Dober · round 2

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Mar 26	Michael Johnson	Won	+2
Oct 25	Kyle Prepolec	Won	+8
Jul 24	Jean Silva	Lost	-1
Feb 24	Renato Moicano	Lost	+4
Dec 22	King Green	Won	-17
Jul 22	Rafael Alves	Won	+17
Jun 21	Brad Riddell	Lost	-6
Mar 21	Islam Makhachev	Lost	-7
May 20	Alexander Hernandez	Won	+19
Mar 19	Beneil Dariush	Lost	-10
Aug 18	Jon Tuck	Won	+10
Jan 18	Frank Camacho	Won	+30
Dec 16	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	Lost	+8
Jan 16	Scott Holtzman	Lost	+1
Mar 15	Leandro Silva	Lost	+1
May 14	Nick Hein	Won	+11
Nov 13	Sean Spencer	Lost	-14

Dober · round 3

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Oct 25	Kyle Prepolec	Won	+13
Jul 24	Jean Silva	Lost	+3
Feb 24	Renato Moicano	Lost	-4
Jul 22	Rafael Alves	Won	+8
Jun 21	Brad Riddell	Lost	-14
Mar 21	Islam Makhachev	Lost	+0
Aug 18	Jon Tuck	Won	+10
Jan 18	Frank Camacho	Lost	-4
Jan 16	Scott Holtzman	Won	-4
May 14	Nick Hein	Lost	-10
Nov 13	Sean Spencer	Lost	-27

Duncan · round 1

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Apr 26	Renato Moicano	Lost	+3
Dec 25	Terrance McKinney	Won	+7
Aug 25	Mateusz Rebecki	Lost	-13
Mar 25	Jordan Vucenic	Won	+8
Sep 24	Bolaji Oki	Won	-18
Feb 24	Manuel Torres	Lost	-2
Jul 23	Yanal Ashmouz	Won	+10
Mar 23	Omar Morales	Lost	-2

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Aug 25	Mateusz Rebecki	Won	+4
Jul 23	Yanal Ashmouz	Won	+28
Mar 23	Omar Morales	Won	+1

Strike differential per minute, by round

Dober +0.1 → +0.8 → -0.7 · Duncan -0.2 → +0.0 → +2.2

Above 0 = landed more significant strikes per minute than the opponent in that round; below 0 = landed fewer.
Hollow grey dot = under 15 UFC minutes in that round (minutes shown), so a thin sample.

Duncan: R3 sits right at the 15-minute floor; thin sample.

104%

Output kept, R3 vs R1

125%

What these numbers mean

Where they land: Share of each fighter's landed significant strikes that hit the head, body and legs.
Diff /min: Strikes landed minus strikes absorbed to that target, per minute of fight time.
Head defence: Share of opponents' head strikes that missed.
Rounds won: Share of rounds they won. A round that ends in a finish goes to the fighter who finished it. Other rounds are scored by our judging model (strikes by target, knockdowns, takedowns, control time, submission attempts), which picks the winner of UFC decisions 85% of the time.
Small numbers: Strike differential per minute in that round, and how many UFC fights reached it.
Five-round rows: Output and differential in rounds 4-5 compared with rounds 1-3, for fighters who have been there.
Output kept, R3 vs R1: Round-3 significant strike attempts as a share of round-1 attempts, in fights that got through round 3 (Labs; needs 3 such fights). Over 100% means they throw more late.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Grappling

0.61

Takedowns /15

2.79

17%

TD accuracy

41%

58%

TD defence

56%

13%

Time in control

22%

-9.0%

Net control, opp-adjusted

+12.2%

22%

Time controlled

10%

0.07

Sub attempts /15

0.65

What these numbers mean

Takedowns /15: Takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
TD accuracy / defence: Share of their takedown attempts that land; share of opponents' attempts they stop.
Time in control / controlled: Share of fight time spent controlling the opponent, or being controlled.
Net control, opp-adjusted: Control time minus time controlled, as a share of fight time, corrected for how strong the opponents were. Controlling good opponents counts for more. In testing it predicted who wins the grappling better than the raw number in each of the last five years.
Sub attempts /15: Submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Dropped or stopped

UFC fights: Dober 27, Duncan 8

Drops or stops them on the feet

rarelyoften

Dober 57% · 2 in last 5 · 12 all-time better than avg

Duncan 32% · 2 in last 5 · 2 all-time better than avg

Division average 23%

Gets dropped or stopped

rarelyoften

Dober 21% · 1 in last 5 · 3 all-time better than avg

Duncan 0% · 0 in last 5 · 0 all-time better than avg

Division average 26%

What these numbers mean

Drops or stops them: Share of UFC fights where they knocked the opponent down or stopped them on the feet. Ground-and-pound finishes without a knockdown do not count.
Gets dropped or stopped: Share of UFC fights where they were knocked down or stopped by strikes (doctor and injury stoppages left out). Lower is better: left = rarely, same direction as the power scale.
Recent fights count more: The latest fight counts fully and a fight three back counts half. Last 5 and all-time counts are shown next to the %.
Black tick: The division average in UFC fights since 2020.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Wins and losses by method

W KOW SUBW DECL DECL SUBL KO

Dober

11344

Duncan

332

8.2

Avg fight, min

8.7

38%

Finished in R1

38%

What these numbers mean

Bar: UFC results by method: wins by KO, submission and decision, then losses.
Avg fight, Finished in R1: Average fight length in minutes, and share of their fights that ended in round 1.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Form

Drew Dober

When	Result	How	Close
Mar 26	W Michael Johnson	KO/TKO R2	-208
Oct 25	W Kyle Prepolec	KO/TKO R3	-328
Mar 25	L Manuel Torres	KO/TKO R1	+105
Jul 24	L Jean Silva	TKO (Dr) R3	+100
Feb 24	L Renato Moicano	UD	+170

All 27 UFC fights

When	Result	How	Close
Oct 23	W Ricky Glenn	KO/TKO R1	-417
May 23	L Matt Frevola	KO/TKO R1	-222
Dec 22	W King Green	KO/TKO R2	-156
Jul 22	W Rafael Alves	KO/TKO R3	-169
Mar 22	W Terrance McKinney	KO/TKO R1	-161
Jun 21	L Brad Riddell	UD	—
Mar 21	L Islam Makhachev	SUB R3	—
May 20	W Alexander Hernandez	KO/TKO R2	—
Jan 20	W Nasrat Haqparast	KO/TKO R1	—
Jun 19	W Marco Polo Reyes	KO/TKO R1	—
Mar 19	L Beneil Dariush	SUB R2	—
Aug 18	W Jon Tuck	UD	—
Jan 18	W Frank Camacho	UD	—
Jul 17	W Joshua Burkman	KO/TKO R1	—
Dec 16	L Olivier Aubin-Mercier	SUB R2	—
Sep 16	W Jason Gonzalez	KO/TKO R1	—
Jan 16	W Scott Holtzman	UD	—
Jun 15	L Efrain Escudero	SUB R1	—
Mar 15	NC Leandro Silva	Overturned R2	—
Dec 14	W Jamie Varner	SUB R1	—
May 14	L Nick Hein	UD	—
Nov 13	L Sean Spencer	UD	—

Chris Duncan

When	Result	How	Close
Apr 26	L Renato Moicano	SUB R2	-132
Dec 25	W Terrance McKinney	SUB R1	-112
Aug 25	W Mateusz Rebecki	UD	+190
Mar 25	W Jordan Vucenic	SUB R2	+310
Sep 24	W Bolaji Oki	SUB R1	+155

All 8 UFC fights

When	Result	How	Close
Feb 24	L Manuel Torres	SUB R1	+145
Jul 23	W Yanal Ashmouz	UD	—
Mar 23	W Omar Morales	SD	-110

Data as of: sheet 11/14 07:19 UTC · odds 11/14 20:24 UTC · line move 11/14 20:10 UTC · Corrections