Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney · UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

ACTION

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Fight Form

Saturday, November 14, 2026 · Madison Square Garden

By @SeanZerillo

Odds updated 2026-11-14 20:24 UTC

FIGHT 6PRELIMSLightweight · 3 RDS

Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney

28-18-0 (1 NC)

UFC record

8-6-0

43.2

Age▶▶

32.2

5'8"

Height▶

5'10"

71"

Reach▶

73"

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

Projection

Moneyline · model vs market

Fighter	Model	Listed	Market	Edge
Jim Miller	+242 29.2%	+180 35.7%	+180 35.7%	-6.5%
Terrance McKinney	-242 70.8%	-200 66.7%	-220 68.8%	+4.1%

Line move Miller opener +180 → +180 (steady, 0.2%)line data as of 11/14 20:10 UTC

Fight length · GTD and ITD

Outcome	Projection	Listed	Edge
Goes the distance	+1044 8.7%	+847 10.6%	-1.8%
Inside the distance	-1044 91.3%	-2000 95.2%	-4.0%

Method of victory · projection vs listed

Fighter		DEC	KO	SUB	ITD
Jim Miller	Proj	+3150 3.1%	+1341 6.9%	+420 19.2%	+282 26.2%
	Listed	+14006.7%	+72412.1%	+31424.2%	+17636.3% KO+Sub
	Edge	-3.6%	-5.2%	-4.9%	-10.1%
Terrance McKinney	Proj	+1666 5.7%	+100 49.9%	+559 15.2%	-187 65.1%
	Listed	not offered	not offered	not offered	not offered
	Edge

Spot to watch

McKinney has the striking edge: career strike diff +3.19 vs -0.51 per min. Fighters with a gap this size won 70.8% vs 62.1% priced in, +11.0% ROI (95% CI +1.1% to +20.9%). Never confirmed on new cards: all 250 bets are from the 2022-26 data the angle was found on. This card is its first out-of-sample test. Never tested live.

What these numbers mean

Model: Our projection: the fair price and win chance for each side.
Listed: The price on our sheet when the projection was published.
Market: The current consensus price. The % is the straight conversion of that price, so it still includes the book's margin.
Edge: Model % minus the listed % (moneyline, goes the distance) or minus the market % (inside the distance, method). Positive means the model likes that side more than the price does. Coloured only at 2.0 points or more either way.
Price unavailable: The odds feed has a price, but it fails our sanity rule (rule v3: a one-sided distance market; this bout's method prices adding up to over 140% or, when complete, under 100%; a draw shorter than +1000; or two of them opening at exactly +100), so we do not show it. Not offered = no price in the feed.
Line move: How far the win chance has moved from the opener to the current line, with the opener of the side it moved toward. The current line uses US-regulated books only.
Spot to watch: Shows only when a tested angle applies to this fight: the striking-edge rule (career strike differential gap 1.9+ per minute, both fighters with 4+ UFC fights), the round-3 rule (R3 differential gap about 2.9+ per minute), or the comeback spot (one fighter much better in round 3 than round 1 relative to the other). Each line gives the test it comes from. None has been tested on live prices.
Price unverified: The listed price was not seen at a US-regulated book in the 24 hours before our projection was published, so we do not colour its edge until the sheet is checked.

Stats

Miller

McKinney

Striking and cardio

Striking

HeadBodyLegswhere they land

Miller

59%20%21%

McKinney

87%13%0%

-0.51

Strike diff /min

+3.19

-0.45

Opp-adjusted diff

+3.19

-0.62

Head diff /min

+3.98

-0.19

Body diff /min

-0.26

+0.29

Leg diff /min

-0.52

64%

Head defence

50%

Round by round (judging model)

Rounds wonjudging model	R1	R2	R3
Miller
McKinney			n/a

Tap a cell for the fights.
% = share of rounds won (scored by our judging model).
/min = significant strike differential per minute in that round.

Miller · round 1

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
May 26	Jared Gordon	Won	+2
Apr 25	Chase Hooper	Won	+0
Nov 24	Damon Jackson	Won	-6
Apr 24	King Green	Lost	-26
Jan 24	Gabriel Benitez	Lost	+0
Jun 23	Jesse Butler	Won	+2
Feb 23	Alexander Hernandez	Lost	-8
Jul 22	Donald Cerrone	Won	+4
Feb 22	Nikolas Motta	Won	+12
Oct 21	Erick Gonzalez	Won	+14
Apr 21	Joe Solecki	Lost	-7
Aug 20	Vinc Pichel	Won	-1
Jun 20	Roosevelt Roberts	Won	+1
Feb 20	Scott Holtzman	Lost	+3
Aug 19	Clay Guida	Won	+0
Apr 19	Jason Gonzalez	Won	-4
Dec 18	Charles Oliveira	Lost	+1
Sep 18	Alex White	Won	+10
Apr 18	Dan Hooker	Lost	-14
Oct 17	Francisco Trinaldo	Won	+7
Jul 17	Anthony Pettis	Lost	-19
Feb 17	Dustin Poirier	Lost	-8
Nov 16	Thiago Alves	Won	+2
Aug 16	Joe Lauzon	Won	+15
Jul 16	Takanori Gomi	Won	+7
Mar 16	Diego Sanchez	Lost	+2
Dec 15	Michael Chiesa	Lost	+0
Jul 15	Danny Castillo	Won	+0
Apr 15	Beneil Dariush	Lost	-9
Jul 14	Donald Cerrone	Won	+3
Apr 14	Yancy Medeiros	Won	-4
Dec 13	Fabricio Camoes	Won	-5
Apr 13	Pat Healy	Won	+5
Dec 12	Joe Lauzon	Won	+30
May 12	Nate Diaz	Lost	-7
Jan 12	Melvin Guillard	Won	-12
Aug 11	Benson Henderson	Lost	-5
Mar 11	Kamal Shalorus	Lost	+2
Dec 10	Charles Oliveira	Won	-4
Sep 10	Gleison Tibau	Won	+8
Mar 10	Mark Bocek	Won	+2
Jan 10	Duane Ludwig	Won	+4
Sep 09	Steve Lopez	Won	+24
Jul 09	Mac Danzig	Won	+7
Mar 09	Gray Maynard	Lost	-4
Dec 08	Matt Wiman	Won	+13
Oct 08	David Baron	Won	+5

Miller · round 2

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Apr 25	Chase Hooper	Lost	-4
Apr 24	King Green	Lost	-41
Jan 24	Gabriel Benitez	Won	+6
Feb 23	Alexander Hernandez	Lost	-18
Jul 22	Donald Cerrone	Won	-1
Feb 22	Nikolas Motta	Won	+15
Oct 21	Erick Gonzalez	Won	+4
Apr 21	Joe Solecki	Lost	+0
Aug 20	Vinc Pichel	Lost	-10
Feb 20	Scott Holtzman	Lost	-19
Oct 17	Francisco Trinaldo	Lost	-19
Jul 17	Anthony Pettis	Lost	-4
Feb 17	Dustin Poirier	Lost	-18
Nov 16	Thiago Alves	Won	-3
Aug 16	Joe Lauzon	Lost	+1
Mar 16	Diego Sanchez	Won	+14
Dec 15	Michael Chiesa	Lost	-6
Jul 15	Danny Castillo	Won	+7
Apr 15	Beneil Dariush	Lost	-6
Jul 14	Donald Cerrone	Lost	-10
Apr 13	Pat Healy	Lost	-19
Dec 12	Joe Lauzon	Won	+5
May 12	Nate Diaz	Lost	-14
Aug 11	Benson Henderson	Lost	-24
Mar 11	Kamal Shalorus	Won	+1
Sep 10	Gleison Tibau	Won	+2
Mar 10	Mark Bocek	Lost	-1
Sep 09	Steve Lopez	Won	+0
Jul 09	Mac Danzig	Won	+7
Mar 09	Gray Maynard	Lost	-3
Dec 08	Matt Wiman	Won	+24
Oct 08	David Baron	Won	+1

Miller · round 3

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Apr 25	Chase Hooper	Lost	-4
Apr 24	King Green	Lost	-62
Jan 24	Gabriel Benitez	Won	-6
Feb 23	Alexander Hernandez	Lost	-15
Apr 21	Joe Solecki	Lost	-1
Aug 20	Vinc Pichel	Lost	-16
Feb 20	Scott Holtzman	Lost	-14
Oct 17	Francisco Trinaldo	Lost	-17
Jul 17	Anthony Pettis	Lost	-9
Feb 17	Dustin Poirier	Lost	+0
Nov 16	Thiago Alves	Won	-7
Aug 16	Joe Lauzon	Lost	+10
Mar 16	Diego Sanchez	Lost	-8
Jul 15	Danny Castillo	Won	+3
Apr 15	Beneil Dariush	Lost	-1
Apr 13	Pat Healy	Lost	-12
Dec 12	Joe Lauzon	Won	+21
Aug 11	Benson Henderson	Lost	-22
Mar 11	Kamal Shalorus	Won	+14
Sep 10	Gleison Tibau	Lost	-4
Mar 10	Mark Bocek	Lost	+5
Jul 09	Mac Danzig	Won	+3
Mar 09	Gray Maynard	Lost	-5
Dec 08	Matt Wiman	Won	+4
Oct 08	David Baron	Won	+2

McKinney · round 1

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jul 26	King Green	Lost	+2
Mar 26	Kyle Nelson	Won	+12
Dec 25	Chris Duncan	Lost	-7
Jun 25	Viacheslav Borshchev	Won	-1
Feb 25	Damir Hadzovic	Won	+50
May 24	Esteban Ribovics	Lost	+0
Oct 23	Brendon Marotte	Won	+13
Aug 23	Mike Breeden	Won	+29
Jul 23	Nazim Sadykhov	Won	+0
Jan 23	Ismael Bonfim	Lost	-10
Aug 22	Erick Gonzalez	Won	+9
Mar 22	Drew Dober	Lost	+19
Feb 22	Fares Ziam	Won	+2
Jun 21	Matt Frevola	Won	+4

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jul 23	Nazim Sadykhov	Lost	-2
Jan 23	Ismael Bonfim	Lost	-10

84%

Output kept, R3 vs R1

n/a

What these numbers mean

Where they land: Share of each fighter's landed significant strikes that hit the head, body and legs.
Diff /min: Strikes landed minus strikes absorbed to that target, per minute of fight time.
Head defence: Share of opponents' head strikes that missed.
Rounds won: Share of rounds they won. A round that ends in a finish goes to the fighter who finished it. Other rounds are scored by our judging model (strikes by target, knockdowns, takedowns, control time, submission attempts), which picks the winner of UFC decisions 85% of the time.
Small numbers: Strike differential per minute in that round, and how many UFC fights reached it.
Five-round rows: Output and differential in rounds 4-5 compared with rounds 1-3, for fighters who have been there.
Output kept, R3 vs R1: Round-3 significant strike attempts as a share of round-1 attempts, in fights that got through round 3 (Labs; needs 3 such fights). Over 100% means they throw more late.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Grappling

1.49

Takedowns /15

3.05

45%

TD accuracy

47%

48%

TD defence

73%

21%

Time in control

45%

-5.3%

Net control, opp-adjusted

+34.4%

27%

Time controlled

10%

1.72

Sub attempts /15

2.18

What these numbers mean

Takedowns /15: Takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
TD accuracy / defence: Share of their takedown attempts that land; share of opponents' attempts they stop.
Time in control / controlled: Share of fight time spent controlling the opponent, or being controlled.
Net control, opp-adjusted: Control time minus time controlled, as a share of fight time, corrected for how strong the opponents were. Controlling good opponents counts for more. In testing it predicted who wins the grappling better than the raw number in each of the last five years.
Sub attempts /15: Submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Dropped or stopped

UFC fights: Miller 47, McKinney 14

Drops or stops them on the feet

rarelyoften

Miller 12% · 0 in last 5 · 6 all-time worse than avg

McKinney 12% · 0 in last 5 · 4 all-time worse than avg

Division average 23%

Gets dropped or stopped

rarelyoften

Miller 11% · 1 in last 5 · 3 all-time better than avg

McKinney 46% · 2 in last 5 · 5 all-time worse than avg

Division average 26%

What these numbers mean

Drops or stops them: Share of UFC fights where they knocked the opponent down or stopped them on the feet. Ground-and-pound finishes without a knockdown do not count.
Gets dropped or stopped: Share of UFC fights where they were knocked down or stopped by strikes (doctor and injury stoppages left out). Lower is better: left = rarely, same direction as the power scale.
Recent fights count more: The latest fight counts fully and a fight three back counts half. Last 5 and all-time counts are shown next to the %.
Black tick: The division average in UFC fights since 2020.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Wins and losses by method

W KOW SUBW DECL DECL SUBL KO

Miller

614813

McKinney

5324

9.5

Avg fight, min

2.5

33%

Finished in R1

86%

What these numbers mean

Bar: UFC results by method: wins by KO, submission and decision, then losses.
Avg fight, Finished in R1: Average fight length in minutes, and share of their fights that ended in round 1.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Form

Jim Miller

When	Result	How	Close
May 26	W Jared Gordon	SUB R1	+219
Apr 25	L Chase Hooper	UD	+550
Nov 24	W Damon Jackson	SUB R1	+195
Apr 24	L King Green	UD	+154
Jan 24	W Gabriel Benitez	SUB R3	-149

All 47 UFC fights

When	Result	How	Close
Jun 23	W Jesse Butler	KO/TKO R1	-250
Feb 23	L Alexander Hernandez	UD	+180
Jul 22	W Donald Cerrone	SUB R2	-189
Feb 22	W Nikolas Motta	KO/TKO R2	+146
Oct 21	W Erick Gonzalez	KO/TKO R2	—
Apr 21	L Joe Solecki	UD	—
Aug 20	L Vinc Pichel	UD	—
Jun 20	W Roosevelt Roberts	SUB R1	—
Feb 20	L Scott Holtzman	UD	—
Aug 19	W Clay Guida	SUB R1	—
Apr 19	W Jason Gonzalez	SUB R1	—
Dec 18	L Charles Oliveira	SUB R1	—
Sep 18	W Alex White	SUB R1	—
Apr 18	L Dan Hooker	KO/TKO R1	—
Oct 17	L Francisco Trinaldo	UD	—
Jul 17	L Anthony Pettis	UD	—
Feb 17	L Dustin Poirier	MD	—
Nov 16	W Thiago Alves	UD	—
Aug 16	W Joe Lauzon	SD	—
Jul 16	W Takanori Gomi	KO/TKO R1	—
Mar 16	L Diego Sanchez	UD	—
Dec 15	L Michael Chiesa	SUB R2	—
Jul 15	W Danny Castillo	SD	—
Apr 15	L Beneil Dariush	UD	—
Jul 14	L Donald Cerrone	KO/TKO R2	—
Apr 14	W Yancy Medeiros	SUB R1	—
Dec 13	W Fabricio Camoes	SUB R1	—
Apr 13	NC Pat Healy	Overturned R3	—
Dec 12	W Joe Lauzon	UD	—
May 12	L Nate Diaz	SUB R2	—
Jan 12	W Melvin Guillard	SUB R1	—
Aug 11	L Benson Henderson	UD	—
Mar 11	W Kamal Shalorus	KO/TKO R3	—
Dec 10	W Charles Oliveira	SUB R1	—
Sep 10	W Gleison Tibau	UD	—
Mar 10	W Mark Bocek	UD	—
Jan 10	W Duane Ludwig	SUB R1	—
Sep 09	W Steve Lopez	KO/TKO R2	—
Jul 09	W Mac Danzig	UD	—
Mar 09	L Gray Maynard	UD	—
Dec 08	W Matt Wiman	UD	—
Oct 08	W David Baron	SUB R3	—

Terrance McKinney

When	Result	How	Close
Jul 26	L King Green	KO/TKO R1	-109
Mar 26	W Kyle Nelson	KO/TKO R1	-185
Dec 25	L Chris Duncan	SUB R1	-106
Jun 25	W Viacheslav Borshchev	SUB R1	-167
Feb 25	W Damir Hadzovic	KO/TKO R1	-588

All 14 UFC fights

When	Result	How	Close
May 24	L Esteban Ribovics	KO/TKO R1	+135
Oct 23	W Brendon Marotte	KO/TKO R1	-571
Aug 23	W Mike Breeden	KO/TKO R1	-278
Jul 23	L Nazim Sadykhov	SUB R2	+135
Jan 23	L Ismael Bonfim	KO/TKO R2	-116
Aug 22	W Erick Gonzalez	SUB R1	-909
Mar 22	L Drew Dober	KO/TKO R1	+140
Feb 22	W Fares Ziam	SUB R1	-104
Jun 21	W Matt Frevola	KO/TKO R1	—

Data as of: sheet 11/14 07:19 UTC · odds 11/14 20:24 UTC · line move 11/14 20:10 UTC · Corrections