Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa · UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

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UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Fight Form

Saturday, November 14, 2026 · Madison Square Garden

By @SeanZerillo

Odds updated 2026-11-14 20:24 UTC

FIGHT 4EARLY PRELIMSLightweight · 3 RDS

Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa

9-8-0 (1 NC)

UFC record

7-3-0

38.2

Age▶▶

30.2

5'9"

Height

5'10"

68"

Reach▶

71"

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

Projection

Moneyline · model vs market

Fighter	Model	Listed	Market	Edge
Jared Gordon	+282 26.2%	+310 24.4%	+300 25.0%	+1.8%
Melquizael Costa	-282 73.8%	-400 80.0%	-380 79.2%	-6.2%

Line move Costa opener -370 → -400 (steady, 0.7%)line data as of 11/14 20:10 UTC

Fight length · GTD and ITD

Outcome	Projection	Listed	Edge
Goes the distance	+156 39.0%	+150 40.0%	-1.0%
Inside the distance	-156 61.0%	-197 66.3%	-5.3%

Method of victory · projection vs listed

Fighter		DEC	KO	SUB	ITD
Jared Gordon	Proj	+609 14.1%	+1139 8.1%	+2386 4.0%	+727 12.1%
	Listed	+57514.8%	+9749.3%	+19494.9%	+60514.2% KO+Sub
	Edge	-0.7%	-1.2%	-0.9%	-2.1%
Melquizael Costa	Proj	+302 24.9%	+176 36.2%	+688 12.7%	+104 48.9%
	Listed	+27027.0%	+13842.0%	+38420.7%	-16862.7% KO+Sub
	Edge	-2.1%	-5.8%	-8.0%	-13.8%

Spot to watch

If Gordon loses R1 on strikes, don't write off R3: fighters with the better late-round record who dropped R1 won R3 on strikes 44% of the time vs 35% for all R1 losers. Based on 432 fights. Tested on round results, not live prices.

See round trend: Stats › Striking & cardio

What these numbers mean

Model: Our projection: the fair price and win chance for each side.
Listed: The price on our sheet when the projection was published.
Market: The current consensus price. The % is the straight conversion of that price, so it still includes the book's margin.
Edge: Model % minus the listed % (moneyline, goes the distance) or minus the market % (inside the distance, method). Positive means the model likes that side more than the price does. Coloured only at 2.0 points or more either way.
Price unavailable: The odds feed has a price, but it fails our sanity rule (rule v3: a one-sided distance market; this bout's method prices adding up to over 140% or, when complete, under 100%; a draw shorter than +1000; or two of them opening at exactly +100), so we do not show it. Not offered = no price in the feed.
Line move: How far the win chance has moved from the opener to the current line, with the opener of the side it moved toward. The current line uses US-regulated books only.
Spot to watch: Shows only when a tested angle applies to this fight: the striking-edge rule (career strike differential gap 1.9+ per minute, both fighters with 4+ UFC fights), the round-3 rule (R3 differential gap about 2.9+ per minute), or the comeback spot (one fighter much better in round 3 than round 1 relative to the other). Each line gives the test it comes from. None has been tested on live prices.
Price unverified: The listed price was not seen at a US-regulated book in the 24 hours before our projection was published, so we do not colour its edge until the sheet is checked.

Stats

Gordon

Costa

Striking and cardio

Striking

HeadBodyLegswhere they land

Gordon

74%16%9%

Costa

47%30%23%

+1.46

Strike diff /min

+1.11

+1.48

Opp-adjusted diff

+1.19

+1.30

Head diff /min

-0.16

+0.07

Body diff /min

+0.60

+0.09

Leg diff /min

+0.66

63%

Head defence

58%

Round by round (judging model)

Rounds wonjudging model	R1	R2	R3
Gordon
Costa

Tap a cell for the fights.
% = share of rounds won (scored by our judging model).
/min = significant strike differential per minute in that round.

Gordon · round 1

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
May 26	Jim Miller	Lost	-2
Sep 25	Rafa Garcia	Lost	+1
May 25	Thiago Moises	Won	+2
Jun 24	Nasrat Haqparast	Lost	-19
Nov 23	Mark Madsen	Won	+1
Apr 23	King Green	Lost	-6
Dec 22	Paddy Pimblett	Won	+3
Aug 22	Leonardo Santos	Won	+27
Apr 22	Grant Dawson	Lost	+5
Oct 21	Joe Solecki	Lost	-9
Feb 21	Danny Chavez	Won	+16
Jul 20	Chris Fishgold	Won	+1
Nov 19	Charles Oliveira	Lost	-3
Jun 19	Dan Moret	Won	-5
Dec 18	Joaquim Silva	Won	+18
Feb 18	Diego Ferreira	Lost	-21
Oct 17	Hacran Dias	Lost	-7
Jun 17	Michel Quinones	Won	+9

Gordon · round 2

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Sep 25	Rafa Garcia	Lost	-2
Jun 24	Nasrat Haqparast	Won	+18
Dec 22	Paddy Pimblett	Won	-4
Aug 22	Leonardo Santos	Won	+16
Apr 22	Grant Dawson	Lost	+4
Oct 21	Joe Solecki	Won	+13
Feb 21	Danny Chavez	Won	+11
Jul 20	Chris Fishgold	Won	+0
Jun 19	Dan Moret	Won	+18
Dec 18	Joaquim Silva	Won	+12
Oct 17	Hacran Dias	Won	+53
Jun 17	Michel Quinones	Won	+42

Gordon · round 3

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Sep 25	Rafa Garcia	Lost	-25
Jun 24	Nasrat Haqparast	Lost	-4
Dec 22	Paddy Pimblett	Won	-2
Aug 22	Leonardo Santos	Won	+37
Apr 22	Grant Dawson	Lost	+14
Oct 21	Joe Solecki	Won	+9
Feb 21	Danny Chavez	Won	+16
Jul 20	Chris Fishgold	Won	+23
Jun 19	Dan Moret	Won	+1
Dec 18	Joaquim Silva	Lost	-9
Oct 17	Hacran Dias	Won	+23

Costa · round 1

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
May 26	Arnold Allen	Lost	+1
Feb 26	Dan Ige	Won	+12
Dec 25	Morgan Charriere	Won	+2
May 25	Julian Erosa	Won	+22
Mar 25	Christian Rodriguez	Won	+11
Feb 25	Andre Fili	Won	+20
Jun 24	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	Lost	+3
Dec 23	Steve Garcia	Won	+1
Jul 23	Austin Lingo	Won	+29
Jan 23	Thiago Moises	Lost	+7

Costa · round 2

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
May 26	Arnold Allen	Lost	+3
May 25	Julian Erosa	Won	+10
Mar 25	Christian Rodriguez	Won	+7
Jun 24	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	Won	+3
Dec 23	Steve Garcia	Lost	-24
Jul 23	Austin Lingo	Won	+20
Jan 23	Thiago Moises	Lost	-6

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
May 26	Arnold Allen	Lost	-2
May 25	Julian Erosa	Won	+1
Mar 25	Christian Rodriguez	Lost	-17
Jun 24	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	Won	+4
Jul 23	Austin Lingo	Won	+12

Strike differential per minute, by round

Gordon +0.1 → +3.0 → +1.7 · Costa +2.4 → +0.4 → -0.1

Above 0 = landed more significant strikes per minute than the opponent in that round; below 0 = landed fewer.
Hollow grey dot = under 15 UFC minutes in that round (minutes shown), so a thin sample.

130%

Output kept, R3 vs R1

103%

What these numbers mean

Where they land: Share of each fighter's landed significant strikes that hit the head, body and legs.
Diff /min: Strikes landed minus strikes absorbed to that target, per minute of fight time.
Head defence: Share of opponents' head strikes that missed.
Rounds won: Share of rounds they won. A round that ends in a finish goes to the fighter who finished it. Other rounds are scored by our judging model (strikes by target, knockdowns, takedowns, control time, submission attempts), which picks the winner of UFC decisions 85% of the time.
Small numbers: Strike differential per minute in that round, and how many UFC fights reached it.
Five-round rows: Output and differential in rounds 4-5 compared with rounds 1-3, for fighters who have been there.
Output kept, R3 vs R1: Round-3 significant strike attempts as a share of round-1 attempts, in fights that got through round 3 (Labs; needs 3 such fights). Over 100% means they throw more late.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Grappling

1.91

Takedowns /15

1.53

35%

TD accuracy

35%

60%

TD defence

51%

34%

Time in control

17%

+22.2%

Net control, opp-adjusted

-14.3%

12%

Time controlled

32%

0.00

Sub attempts /15

0.84

What these numbers mean

Takedowns /15: Takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
TD accuracy / defence: Share of their takedown attempts that land; share of opponents' attempts they stop.
Time in control / controlled: Share of fight time spent controlling the opponent, or being controlled.
Net control, opp-adjusted: Control time minus time controlled, as a share of fight time, corrected for how strong the opponents were. Controlling good opponents counts for more. In testing it predicted who wins the grappling better than the raw number in each of the last five years.
Sub attempts /15: Submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Dropped or stopped

UFC fights: Gordon 18, Costa 10

Drops or stops them on the feet

rarelyoften

Gordon 22% · 2 in last 5 · 2 all-time

Costa 33% · 2 in last 5 · 2 all-time better than avg

Division average 23%

Gets dropped or stopped

rarelyoften

Gordon 19% · 1 in last 5 · 4 all-time better than avg

Costa 27% · 1 in last 5 · 2 all-time

Division average 26%

What these numbers mean

Drops or stops them: Share of UFC fights where they knocked the opponent down or stopped them on the feet. Ground-and-pound finishes without a knockdown do not count.
Gets dropped or stopped: Share of UFC fights where they were knocked down or stopped by strikes (doctor and injury stoppages left out). Lower is better: left = rarely, same direction as the power scale.
Recent fights count more: The latest fight counts fully and a fight three back counts half. Last 5 and all-time counts are shown next to the %.
Black tick: The division average in UFC fights since 2020.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Wins and losses by method

W KOW SUBW DECL DECL SUBL KO

Gordon

36224

Costa

223111

10.8

Avg fight, min

10.8

29%

Finished in R1

30%

What these numbers mean

Bar: UFC results by method: wins by KO, submission and decision, then losses.
Avg fight, Finished in R1: Average fight length in minutes, and share of their fights that ended in round 1.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Form

Jared Gordon

When	Result	How	Close
May 26	L Jim Miller	SUB R1	-260
Sep 25	L Rafa Garcia	KO/TKO R3	-179
May 25	W Thiago Moises	KO/TKO R1	-122
Jun 24	L Nasrat Haqparast	SD	+195
Nov 23	W Mark Madsen	KO/TKO R1	-204

All 18 UFC fights

When	Result	How	Close
Apr 23	NC King Green	CNC R1	+220
Dec 22	L Paddy Pimblett	UD	+219
Aug 22	W Leonardo Santos	UD	-263
Apr 22	L Grant Dawson	SUB R3	+163
Oct 21	W Joe Solecki	SD	—
Feb 21	W Danny Chavez	UD	—
Jul 20	W Chris Fishgold	UD	—
Nov 19	L Charles Oliveira	KO/TKO R1	—
Jun 19	W Dan Moret	UD	—
Dec 18	L Joaquim Silva	KO/TKO R3	—
Feb 18	L Diego Ferreira	KO/TKO R1	—
Oct 17	W Hacran Dias	UD	—
Jun 17	W Michel Quinones	KO/TKO R2	—

Melquizael Costa

When	Result	How	Close
May 26	L Arnold Allen	UD	+102
Feb 26	W Dan Ige	KO/TKO R1	-247
Dec 25	W Morgan Charriere	KO/TKO R1	-153
May 25	W Julian Erosa	UD	-164
Mar 25	W Christian Rodriguez	UD	+180

All 10 UFC fights

When	Result	How	Close
Feb 25	W Andre Fili	SUB R1	-130
Jun 24	W Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	SUB R3	-204
Dec 23	L Steve Garcia	KO/TKO R2	-250
Jul 23	W Austin Lingo	UD	-227
Jan 23	L Thiago Moises	SUB R2	+300

Data as of: sheet 11/14 07:19 UTC · odds 11/14 20:24 UTC · line move 11/14 20:10 UTC · Corrections