Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita · UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

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UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Fight Form

Saturday, November 14, 2026 · Madison Square Garden

By @SeanZerillo

Odds updated 2026-11-14 20:24 UTC

FIGHT 3EARLY PRELIMSTHIN SAMPLEWomen's Bantamweight · 3 RDS

Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita

8-6-0

UFC record

3-0-0

35.3

Age

35.6

5'11"

Height

n/a

72"

Reach

not listed

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Projection

Moneyline · model vs market

Fighter	Model	Listed	Market	Edge
Macy Chiasson	+266 27.3%	+205 32.8%	+207 32.6%	-5.5%
Bia Mesquita	-266 72.7%	-250 71.4%	-260 72.2%	+1.3%

Line move Mesquita opener -213 → -263 (+3.6%)line data as of 11/14 20:10 UTC

Fight length · GTD and ITD

Outcome	Projection	Listed	Edge
Goes the distance	+199 33.5%	+190 34.5%	-1.0%
Inside the distance	-199 66.5%	-265 72.6%	-6.1%

Method of victory · projection vs listed

Fighter		DEC	KO	SUB	ITD
Macy Chiasson	Proj	+709 12.4%	+800 11.1%	+2525 3.8%	+570 14.9%
	Listed	+44918.2%	+55015.4%	+22004.3%	+40719.7% KO+Sub
	Edge	-5.9%	-4.3%	-0.5%	-4.8%
Bia Mesquita	Proj	+374 21.1%	+1242 7.5%	+126 44.2%	-107 51.6%
	Listed	+50216.6%	+90010.0%	-11753.9%	-17763.9% KO+Sub
	Edge	+4.5%	-2.5%	-9.7%	-12.3%

What these numbers mean

Model: Our projection: the fair price and win chance for each side.
Listed: The price on our sheet when the projection was published.
Market: The current consensus price. The % is the straight conversion of that price, so it still includes the book's margin.
Edge: Model % minus the listed % (moneyline, goes the distance) or minus the market % (inside the distance, method). Positive means the model likes that side more than the price does. Coloured only at 2.0 points or more either way.
Price unavailable: The odds feed has a price, but it fails our sanity rule (rule v3: a one-sided distance market; this bout's method prices adding up to over 140% or, when complete, under 100%; a draw shorter than +1000; or two of them opening at exactly +100), so we do not show it. Not offered = no price in the feed.
Line move: How far the win chance has moved from the opener to the current line, with the opener of the side it moved toward. The current line uses US-regulated books only.
Spot to watch: Shows only when a tested angle applies to this fight: the striking-edge rule (career strike differential gap 1.9+ per minute, both fighters with 4+ UFC fights), the round-3 rule (R3 differential gap about 2.9+ per minute), or the comeback spot (one fighter much better in round 3 than round 1 relative to the other). Each line gives the test it comes from. None has been tested on live prices.
Price unverified: The listed price was not seen at a US-regulated book in the 24 hours before our projection was published, so we do not colour its edge until the sheet is checked.

Stats

Chiasson

Mesquita

Striking and cardio

Striking

HeadBodyLegswhere they land

Chiasson

55%35%10%

Mesquita

93%4%4%

+0.45

Strike diff /min

+3.25

+0.45

Opp-adjusted diff

+3.08

+0.09

Head diff /min

+3.33

+0.30

Body diff /min

+0.00

+0.07

Leg diff /min

-0.08

53%

Head defence

73% 3 fights

Round by round (judging model)

Rounds wonjudging model	R1	R2	R3
Chiasson
Mesquita			n/a

Tap a cell for the fights.
% = share of rounds won (scored by our judging model).
/min = significant strike differential per minute in that round.

Chiasson · round 1

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Feb 26	Ailin Perez	Lost	-2
Oct 25	Yana Santos	Lost	-17
May 25	Ketlen Vieira	Lost	-1
Jun 24	Mayra Bueno Silva	Lost	-5
Mar 24	Pannie Kianzad	Won	+2
Sep 22	Irene Aldana	Lost	-12
May 22	Norma Dumont	Won	+3
Dec 21	Raquel Pennington	Lost	-9
Mar 21	Marion Reneau	Won	+2
Feb 20	Shanna Young	Won	+32
Sep 19	Lina Lansberg	Won	+12
May 19	Sarah Moras	Lost	+11
Mar 19	Gina Mazany	Won	+11
Nov 18	Pannie Kianzad	Won	-2

Chiasson · round 2

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Feb 26	Ailin Perez	Lost	-12
Oct 25	Yana Santos	Lost	-6
May 25	Ketlen Vieira	Lost	-2
Jun 24	Mayra Bueno Silva	Won	+9
Sep 22	Irene Aldana	Won	+8
May 22	Norma Dumont	Won	+0
Dec 21	Raquel Pennington	Lost	-10
Mar 21	Marion Reneau	Won	+12
Feb 20	Shanna Young	Won	+4
Sep 19	Lina Lansberg	Lost	+1
May 19	Sarah Moras	Won	+23
Nov 18	Pannie Kianzad	Won	+7

Chiasson · round 3

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Feb 26	Ailin Perez	Lost	-5
Oct 25	Yana Santos	Won	+12
May 25	Ketlen Vieira	Lost	-3
Sep 22	Irene Aldana	Lost	+6
May 22	Norma Dumont	Won	-9
Mar 21	Marion Reneau	Won	+7
Feb 20	Shanna Young	Won	+10
Sep 19	Lina Lansberg	Lost	-8

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Jun 26	Melissa Mullins	Won	-7
Mar 26	Montse Rendon	Won	+18
Oct 25	Irina Alekseeva	Won	+33

When	Opponent	Round	Strikes +/-
Oct 25	Irina Alekseeva	Won	-3

43%

Output kept, R3 vs R1

n/a

What these numbers mean

Where they land: Share of each fighter's landed significant strikes that hit the head, body and legs.
Diff /min: Strikes landed minus strikes absorbed to that target, per minute of fight time.
Head defence: Share of opponents' head strikes that missed.
Rounds won: Share of rounds they won. A round that ends in a finish goes to the fighter who finished it. Other rounds are scored by our judging model (strikes by target, knockdowns, takedowns, control time, submission attempts), which picks the winner of UFC decisions 85% of the time.
Small numbers: Strike differential per minute in that round, and how many UFC fights reached it.
Five-round rows: Output and differential in rounds 4-5 compared with rounds 1-3, for fighters who have been there.
Output kept, R3 vs R1: Round-3 significant strike attempts as a share of round-1 attempts, in fights that got through round 3 (Labs; needs 3 such fights). Over 100% means they throw more late.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Grappling

1.87

Takedowns /15

3.57

36%

TD accuracy

75%

62%

TD defence

34%

Time in control

54%

+9.4%

Net control, opp-adjusted

+41.0%

25%

Time controlled

11%

0.39

Sub attempts /15

3.57

What these numbers mean

Takedowns /15: Takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
TD accuracy / defence: Share of their takedown attempts that land; share of opponents' attempts they stop.
Time in control / controlled: Share of fight time spent controlling the opponent, or being controlled.
Net control, opp-adjusted: Control time minus time controlled, as a share of fight time, corrected for how strong the opponents were. Controlling good opponents counts for more. In testing it predicted who wins the grappling better than the raw number in each of the last five years.
Sub attempts /15: Submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Dropped or stopped

UFC fights: Chiasson 14, Mesquita 3

Drops or stops them on the feet

rarelyoften

Chiasson 2% · 0 in last 5 · 2 all-time worse than avg

Mesquita 0% · 0 in last 3 · 0 all-time small sample

Division average 9%

Gets dropped or stopped

rarelyoften

Chiasson 7% · 0 in last 5 · 1 all-time

Mesquita 0% · 0 in last 3 · 0 all-time small sample

Division average 12%

What these numbers mean

Drops or stops them: Share of UFC fights where they knocked the opponent down or stopped them on the feet. Ground-and-pound finishes without a knockdown do not count.
Gets dropped or stopped: Share of UFC fights where they were knocked down or stopped by strikes (doctor and injury stoppages left out). Lower is better: left = rarely, same direction as the power scale.
Recent fights count more: The latest fight counts fully and a fight three back counts half. Last 5 and all-time counts are shown next to the %.
Black tick: The division average in UFC fights since 2020.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Wins and losses by method

W KOW SUBW DECL DECL SUBL KO

Chiasson

2234

Mesquita

10.9

Avg fight, min

4.2

14%

Finished in R1

67%

What these numbers mean

Bar: UFC results by method: wins by KO, submission and decision, then losses.
Avg fight, Finished in R1: Average fight length in minutes, and share of their fights that ended in round 1.
Note: All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Form

Macy Chiasson

When	Result	How	Close
Feb 26	L Ailin Perez	UD	+155
Oct 25	L Yana Santos	UD	-204
May 25	L Ketlen Vieira	UD	-141
Jun 24	W Mayra Bueno Silva	TKO (Dr) R2	-112
Mar 24	W Pannie Kianzad	SUB R1	-250

All 14 UFC fights

When	Result	How	Close
Sep 22	L Irene Aldana	KO/TKO R3	+150
May 22	W Norma Dumont	SD	+185
Dec 21	L Raquel Pennington	SUB R2	—
Mar 21	W Marion Reneau	UD	—
Feb 20	W Shanna Young	UD	—
Sep 19	L Lina Lansberg	UD	—
May 19	W Sarah Moras	KO/TKO R2	—
Mar 19	W Gina Mazany	KO/TKO R1	—
Nov 18	W Pannie Kianzad	SUB R2	—

Bia Mesquita

When	Result	How	Close
Jun 26	W Melissa Mullins	SUB R1	-667
Mar 26	W Montse Rendon	SUB R1	-714
Oct 25	W Irina Alekseeva	SUB R2	-645

Data as of: sheet 11/14 07:19 UTC · odds 11/14 20:24 UTC · line move 11/14 20:10 UTC · Corrections