ACTION
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Fight Form
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · Madison Square Garden
By @SeanZerillo
Odds updated 2026-11-13 10:10 UTC
FIGHT 2EARLY PRELIMSTHIN SAMPLEBantamweight · 3 RDS
Alatengheili vs Juan Diaz
6-3-1
UFC record
1-0-0
34.9
Age▶▶
28.4
5'5"
Height
n/a
66"
Reach
not listed
Orthodox
Stance
not listed

Projection

Moneyline · model vs market
FighterModelListedMarketEdge
Alatengheili
+324
23.6%
+320
23.8%
+320
23.8%
-0.2%
Juan Diaz
-324
76.4%
-333
76.9%
-420
80.8%
-0.5%
Line move Diaz opener -333 → -417 (+3.0%)line data as of 11/13 09:54 UTC
Fight length · GTD and ITD
OutcomeProjectionListedEdge
Goes the distance-170
63.0%
-188
65.3%
-2.2%
Inside the distance+170
37.0%
+144
41.0%
-4.0%
Method of victory · projection vs listed
FighterDECKOSUBITD
AlatengheiliProj+803
11.1%
+1072
8.5%
+2401
4.0%
+698
12.5%
Listed+50016.7%+12007.7%+35002.8%+85510.5%
KO+Sub
Edge-5.6%+0.8%+1.2%+2.1%
Juan DiazProj-108
51.9%
+540
15.6%
+1033
8.8%
+309
24.4%
Listed-11052.4%+35422.0%+52416.0%+16338.1%
KO+Sub
Edge-0.4%-6.4%-7.2%-13.6%
Listed = US-regulated market consensus price. Edge = projection % minus the listed price's implied % (vig included). ITD listed = the fighter's KO and Sub prices combined.
What these numbers mean
Model
Our projection: the fair price and win chance for each side.
Listed
The price on our sheet when the projection was published.
Market
The current consensus price. The % is the straight conversion of that price, so it still includes the book's margin.
Edge
Model % minus the listed % (moneyline, goes the distance) or minus the market % (inside the distance, method). Positive means the model likes that side more than the price does. Coloured only at 2.0 points or more either way.
Price unavailable
The odds feed has a price, but it fails our sanity rule (rule v3: a one-sided distance market; this bout's method prices adding up to over 140% or, when complete, under 100%; a draw shorter than +1000; or two of them opening at exactly +100), so we do not show it. Not offered = no price in the feed.
Line move
How far the win chance has moved from the opener to the current line, with the opener of the side it moved toward. The current line uses US-regulated books only.
Spot to watch
Shows only when a tested angle applies to this fight: the striking-edge rule (career strike differential gap 1.9+ per minute, both fighters with 4+ UFC fights), the round-3 rule (R3 differential gap about 2.9+ per minute), or the comeback spot (one fighter much better in round 3 than round 1 relative to the other). Each line gives the test it comes from. None has been tested on live prices.
Price unverified
The listed price was not seen at a US-regulated book in the 24 hours before our projection was published, so we do not colour its edge until the sheet is checked.

Stats

Alatengheili
VS
Diaz
Striking and cardio
Striking
HeadBodyLegswhere they land
Alatengheili
Diaz
-2.25
Strike diff /min
-0.22
-2.30
Opp-adjusted diff
-0.27
-1.08
Head diff /min
+0.00
-0.50
Body diff /min
-0.66
-0.67
Leg diff /min
+0.44
65%
Head defence
73% 1 fight
Round by round (judging model)
Rounds wonjudging modelR1R2R3
Alatengheili
Diazn/a
  • Tap a cell for the fights.
  • % = share of rounds won (scored by our judging model).
  • /min = significant strike differential per minute in that round.
What these numbers mean
Where they land
Share of each fighter's landed significant strikes that hit the head, body and legs.
Diff /min
Strikes landed minus strikes absorbed to that target, per minute of fight time.
Head defence
Share of opponents' head strikes that missed.
Rounds won
Share of rounds they won. A round that ends in a finish goes to the fighter who finished it. Other rounds are scored by our judging model (strikes by target, knockdowns, takedowns, control time, submission attempts), which picks the winner of UFC decisions 85% of the time.
Small numbers
Strike differential per minute in that round, and how many UFC fights reached it.
Five-round rows
Output and differential in rounds 4-5 compared with rounds 1-3, for fighters who have been there.
Output kept, R3 vs R1
Round-3 significant strike attempts as a share of round-1 attempts, in fights that got through round 3 (Labs; needs 3 such fights). Over 100% means they throw more late.
Note
All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).
Grappling
1.88
Takedowns /15
8.21
42%
TD accuracy
62%
75%
TD defence
n/a
16%
Time in control
42%
+12.6%
Net control, opp-adjusted
+41.0%
2%
Time controlled
0%
0.00
Sub attempts /15
1.64
What these numbers mean
Takedowns /15
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
TD accuracy / defence
Share of their takedown attempts that land; share of opponents' attempts they stop.
Time in control / controlled
Share of fight time spent controlling the opponent, or being controlled.
Net control, opp-adjusted
Control time minus time controlled, as a share of fight time, corrected for how strong the opponents were. Controlling good opponents counts for more. In testing it predicted who wins the grappling better than the raw number in each of the last five years.
Sub attempts /15
Submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Note
All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).
Dropped or stopped
UFC fights: Alatengheili 10, Diaz 1
Drops or stops them on the feet
rarelyoften
Alatengheili 7% · 0 in last 5 · 1 all-time worse than avg
Diaz 0% · 0 in last 1 · 0 all-time small sample
Division average 20%
Gets dropped or stopped
rarelyoften
Alatengheili 0% · 0 in last 5 · 0 all-time better than avg
Diaz 0% · 0 in last 1 · 0 all-time small sample
Division average 22%
What these numbers mean
Drops or stops them
Share of UFC fights where they knocked the opponent down or stopped them on the feet. Ground-and-pound finishes without a knockdown do not count.
Gets dropped or stopped
Share of UFC fights where they were knocked down or stopped by strikes (doctor and injury stoppages left out). Lower is better: left = rarely, same direction as the power scale.
Recent fights count more
The latest fight counts fully and a fight three back counts half. Last 5 and all-time counts are shown next to the %.
Black tick
The division average in UFC fights since 2020.
Note
All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).
Wins and losses by method
W KOW SUBW DECL DECL SUBL KO
Alatengheili
Diaz
13.4
Avg fight, min
9.1 1 fight
11%
Finished in R1
0% 1 fight
What these numbers mean
Bar
UFC results by method: wins by KO, submission and decision, then losses.
Avg fight, Finished in R1
Average fight length in minutes, and share of their fights that ended in round 1.
Note
All stats use UFC fights before this card only. Green = the better side; darker green = a bigger gap. A small fight count beside a number means it is below the sample Labs requires (5 UFC fights for head defence, 3 for pace).

Form

Alatengheili
WhenResultHowClose
Sep 26W John CastanedaSD—
Apr 25L Da'Mon BlackshearUD—
May 24W Kleydson RodriguesUD—
Oct 23L Chris GutierrezUD—
Sep 22W Chad AnheligerUD—
All 10 UFC fights
WhenResultHowClose
Apr 22W Kevin CroomKO/TKO R1—
Sep 21D Gustavo LopezUD—
Oct 20L Casey KenneyUD—
Dec 19W Ryan BenoitSD—
Aug 19W Batgerel DanaaUD—
Juan Diaz
WhenResultHowClose
May 26W Malcolm WellmakerSUB R2+193
Data as of: sheet 11/12 22:47 UTC · odds 11/13 10:10 UTC · line move 11/13 09:54 UTC · Corrections