Moneyline · model vs market
| Fighter | Model | Listed | Market | Edge |
|---|
| Evan Elder
| +123 44.8% | +102 49.5% | +100 50.0% | -4.7% |
| Samuel Sanches
| -123 55.2% | -115 53.5% manual price | -120 54.5% | +1.7% |
Line move Sanches opener -101 → -119 (+3.4%)line data as of 11/13 09:54 UTC
Fight length · GTD and ITD
| Outcome | Projection | Listed | Edge |
|---|
| Goes the distance | +128 43.8% | +118 45.9% | -2.1% |
| Inside the distance | -128 56.2% | -152 60.3% | -4.1% |
Method of victory · projection vs listed
| Fighter | | DEC | KO | SUB | ITD |
|---|
| Evan Elder | Proj | +400 20.0% | +594 14.4% | +859 10.4% | +303 24.8% |
| Listed | +25528.2% | +52416.0% | +70012.5% | +25128.5% KO+Sub |
| Edge | -8.2% | -1.6% | -2.1% | -3.7% |
| Samuel Sanches | Proj | +320 23.8% | +268 27.2% | +2260 4.2% | +219 31.4% |
| Listed | +40020.0% | +17935.8% | +18005.3% | +14341.1% KO+Sub |
| Edge | +3.8% | -8.7% | -1.0% | -9.7% |
Debut vs UFC veteran
Sanches makes a UFC debut against Elder (5 UFC fights). Since 2022, UFC debutants in this spot won 49.8% of 233 fights; the closing line expected 50.4%.
Won
Close expected
95% range for the win rate: 43.4% to 56.2% (n 233). Backing every debutant at the closing price returned -11.9% per bet (95% range, resampled by card: -23.7% to +0.7%). That is not distinguishable from the bookmaker's margin alone at these prices (-4.1%). From the site's Labs research (2022-01-15 to 2026-11-07). Context, not a pick.
Listed = US-regulated market consensus price. Edge = projection % minus the listed price's implied % (vig included). ITD listed = the fighter's KO and Sub prices combined.
What these numbers mean
- Model
- Our projection: the fair price and win chance for each side.
- Listed
- The price on our sheet when the projection was published.
- Market
- The current consensus price. The % is the straight conversion of that price, so it still includes the book's margin.
- Edge
- Model % minus the listed % (moneyline, goes the distance) or minus the market % (inside the distance, method). Positive means the model likes that side more than the price does. Coloured only at 2.0 points or more either way.
- Price unavailable
- The odds feed has a price, but it fails our sanity rule (rule v3: a one-sided distance market; this bout's method prices adding up to over 140% or, when complete, under 100%; a draw shorter than +1000; or two of them opening at exactly +100), so we do not show it. Not offered = no price in the feed.
- Line move
- How far the win chance has moved from the opener to the current line, with the opener of the side it moved toward. The current line uses US-regulated books only.
- Spot to watch
- Shows only when a tested angle applies to this fight: the striking-edge rule (career strike differential gap 1.9+ per minute, both fighters with 4+ UFC fights), the round-3 rule (R3 differential gap about 2.9+ per minute), or the comeback spot (one fighter much better in round 3 than round 1 relative to the other). Each line gives the test it comes from. None has been tested on live prices.
- Price unverified
- The listed price was not seen at a US-regulated book in the 24 hours before our projection was published, so we do not colour its edge until the sheet is checked.